Just a few things had investor attention in Q1, among them…
- The inauguration of President Biden
- A blowout earnings season
- The emergence of meme stocks and our introduction to an online trader nicknamed Roaring Kitty
- A near endless supply of new SPACs
- Incipient fears of higher interest rates and inflation
- Yet another COVID-relief bill to the tune $1.9 trillion or a little less than 9% of GDP
- Global M&A activity reached its highest level since 1980 and 10-year Treasury yields doubled
And a few things we’ll be watching for potential in Q2 and beyond…
The Good:
- Faster-Than-Expected Vaccine Rollout – Return to Normalcy solves everything / we believe the best stimulus is an open economy. Furthermore, the Fed said that once the U.S. achieves 75% immunization, that they would consider beginning the tapering discussion. If we look at the current pace of vaccine distribution, we could see the U.S. hit this threshold number by mid-June.
- Better Economic Data – Economic data, which lags the stock market, hit rock-bottom last year, but we believe signs of a recovery have continued to appear, most notably with the recent Non-Farm Payroll and ISM data. Now that we have a fifth round of stimulus from Congress, especially within the unemployment area, and the potential for an infrastructure bill, we believe that we will continue to see increased consumer spending and job stabilization – both keys to getting out of this pandemic-induced recession.
- Better than Anticipated Earnings – Given the record amount of stimulus, and that S&P 500 earnings are only 13% below its peak, we believe earnings growth will continue to be a determining factor of success for corporate America, pending tax changes. Moving forward, we believe that if earnings growth in 2021 can surpass the multiple contraction that we could potentially see, since we are at 99th percentile multiple, positive future performance could occur.
- Health of the Consumer – We believe the aggregate consumer is flush with cash, and once pent-up demand can safely be unleashed, the U.S. economy is set to rip higher. While we know that the cruel nature of the pandemic has had an adverse financial impact on many (particularly those less fortunate), in aggregate, the consumer coffers are presently funded. U.S. bank deposits are up more that $3 trillion from a year ago, while credit card balances are down 12% over the past year.
The Bad:
- Variants Causing Another Shutdown – After a significant decline in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. earlier this year, variants of concern (VoCs) continue be a risk, as there have been strains, i.e., “P.1 Variant”, that are more contagious than the original strain.
The Ugly:
- Possible Policy Errors Through Fiscal Tightening (Taxes) in 2022 – The lags associated with the long-term benefits of infrastructure spending are notoriously long and variable. Tax increases, on the other hand, tend to be retroactive and immediate. From a market perspective, the fear is that a fiscal drag sterilizes the positive impacts of reopening and already passed stimulus, leading to an economic environment more consistent with the period of secular stagnation after the GFC.
- Faster-than-Expected Inflation – The magnitude of the policy actions used to counteract deflation may, in the end, be hugely inflationary. Higher-than-expected inflation tends to be a major headwind to equity valuations. Right now, 5YR inflation breakeven figures are above the Fed’s 2% target. For markets how the Fed chooses to address inflation is as important as the inflation itself.
We’d love for you to flip through the full set of charts and context, linked here. Enjoy!
Disclosures
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.
This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.
The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. There is over USD 11.2 trillion indexed or benchmarked to the index, with indexed assets comprising approximately USD 4.6 trillion of this total. The index includes 500 leading companies and covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization.
The Nasdaq Composite Index measures all Nasdaq domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market. To be eligible for inclusion in the Index, the security’s U.S. listing must be exclusively on The Nasdaq Stock Market (unless the security was dually listed on another U.S. market prior to January 1, 2004 and has continuously maintained such listing). The security types eligible for the Index include common stocks, ordinary shares, ADRs, shares of beneficial interest or limited partnership interests and tracking stocks. Security types not included in the Index are closed-end funds, convertible debentures, exchange traded funds, preferred stocks, rights, warrants, units and other derivative securities.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average® (The Dow®), is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The index covers all industries except transportation and utilities.
The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the US equity universe. The Russell 2000® Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 2000® is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased small-cap barometer and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true small-cap opportunity set.
The MSCI EAFE Index is an equity index which captures large and mid-cap representation across 21 Developed Markets countries*around the world, excluding the US and Canada. With 902 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 26 Emerging Markets (EM) countries*. With 1,387 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. This includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities and collateralized mortgage-backed securities.
The Russell Midcap® Index measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the US equity universe. The Russell Midcap® Index is a subset of the Russell 1000® Index. It includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell Midcap® Index represents approximately 31% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000® companies. The Russell Midcap® Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the mid-cap segment. The index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true mid-cap opportunity set.
The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. dollar-denominated, investment grade corporate bonds. The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. dollar-denominated, high yield corporate bonds.
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