Have a great weekend!
Ten: Markets had all but priced the quarter-point hike going in, the Fed followed through, and at least one more is now the base case by year-end.
Brad: Inflation is the complicating factor, with every measure stable to higher over the past few months
John Luke: and nondurables are driving it, with durable goods prices roughly flat year over year
Jake: The Atlanta Fed’s nowcast has climbed through the quarter, with consumer spending and private investment both adding to it
Graphic as of 09.16.2026
John: and with nominal growth above funding costs, the debt math sits better here than in the largest developed markets
John Luke: The index keeps making this look easy, but the average stock is sitting well off of its own high
Beckham: and the drawdowns are common across most sectors
Source: Bespoke as of 9.18.2026
Mark: Momentum has been the epicenter, with the crowded trades swinging wildly day to day
Brett: The wall of worry is not only intact but growing
Source: AAII
Dave: This year’s estimates are not only bucking the “drift lower through the year” trend, but accelerating
Source: Strategas as of 09.15.2026
Brad: and margin expansion is doing much of that work
Beckham: The index’s earnings multiple continues to contract, with earnings growth outpacing the index’s gain by a wide margin
Brian: Rising yields are not just a US phenomenon
Dave: and at home, that has pushed net interest costs to nearly a fifth of federal tax revenue
Source: Strategas as of 09.15.2026
John Luke: For bond investors, a higher starting yield can help overcome a price drag
John Luke: and over the long run, it is that income, not price, that produces the total return
Joseph: Taking a step back, prediction markets have Senate control at close to even money
Dave: and in past midterm years, the S&P has tended to soften into October before rallying once the votes are counted
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