Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Dave: With earnings mostly flat, changing valuations and seasonality have driven a good bit of this year’s moves in stocks
Source: Strategas as of 10.27.2023
Mark: and the calendar is setting up as a supporting factor into year-end
Joseph: While the US economy has now been fully restored to its pre-COVID trendline
Source: Bernstein as of 11.01.2023
John Luke: the persistence of core inflation has moved the Fed into a restrictive rate policy to prevent inflation from running out of control
Source: Bloomberg as of 10.31.2023
John Luke: Combined with the fall weakness in stocks, this has created tighter financial conditions beyond just Fed rate policy
Source: Bloomberg as of 11.01.2023
Brett: and led to some concern among corporations on their earnings calls
Data as of 11.01.2023
Dave: As far as earnings as a whole, we’re seeing low-to-mid single-digit growth rates
Data as of 10.31.2023
Joseph: though it’s generally leading to future cuts in earnings expectations, not improvements
Data as of 10.30.2023
Brad: and future expectations are varying quite a bit based on sector
Source: Strategas as of 11.01.2023
Beckham: Speaking of earnings, it’s pretty clear why US stocks have vastly outperformed foreign stocks since the GFC
Data as of 11.01.2023
Brett: and with the contrasting mix of debt across economies, there’s reason to expect the business outperformance to continue
Source: Apollo as of 11.01.2023
Dave: Going further into the contrast, US companies have vastly superior funding than they did going into the GFC
Source: BofA as of March 2023
John Luke: as do individual homeowners
Data as of October 2023
Dave: Perversely, higher rates have generally been good for older US consumers given their accumulation of savings
Source: BofA as of October 2023
JD: and equally weird, young investors are allocating more to bonds than older investors… talk about longevity risk!
Data as of October 2023
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