The Market in Pictures, November 3

by | Nov 3, 2023 | Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

Dave: With earnings mostly flat, changing valuations and seasonality have driven a good bit of this year’s moves in stocks

 

Source: Strategas as of 10.27.2023

 

Mark: and the calendar is setting up as a supporting factor into year-end

 

 

Joseph: While the US economy has now been fully restored to its pre-COVID trendline

 

Source: Bernstein as of 11.01.2023

 

John Luke: the persistence of core inflation has moved the Fed into a restrictive rate policy to prevent inflation from running out of control

 

Source: Bloomberg as of 10.31.2023

 

John Luke: Combined with the fall weakness in stocks, this has created tighter financial conditions beyond just Fed rate policy

 

Source: Bloomberg as of 11.01.2023

 

Brett: and led to some concern among corporations on their earnings calls

 

Data as of 11.01.2023

 

Dave: As far as earnings as a whole, we’re seeing low-to-mid single-digit growth rates

 

Data as of 10.31.2023

 

Joseph: though it’s generally leading to future cuts in earnings expectations, not improvements

 

Data as of 10.30.2023

 

Brad: and future expectations are varying quite a bit based on sector

 

Source: Strategas as of 11.01.2023

 

Beckham: Speaking of earnings, it’s pretty clear why US stocks have vastly outperformed foreign stocks since the GFC

 

Data as of 11.01.2023

 

Brett: and with the contrasting mix of debt across economies, there’s reason to expect the business outperformance to continue

  

Source: Apollo as of 11.01.2023

 

Dave: Going further into the contrast, US companies have vastly superior funding than they did going into the GFC

 

Source: BofA as of March 2023

 

John Luke: as do individual homeowners

 

Data as of October 2023

 

Dave: Perversely, higher rates have generally been good for older US consumers given their accumulation of savings

 

Source: BofA as of October 2023

 

JD: and equally weird, young investors are allocating more to bonds than older investors… talk about longevity risk!

 

Data as of October 2023

 

 

Disclosures

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. 

Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2311-8.

Explore the Aptus Blog

Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aptus Capital Advisors (“Aptus”) and/or the individual Aptus Employee being interviewed as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Aptus reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs and there is no guarantee that such assessments of investments will be accurate. There is no guarantee that strategies or recommendations will equal or exceed any expectations or goals discussed. The discussions, outlook, and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aptus Capital Advisors (“Aptus”) and are subject to change without notice.

Aptus social media posts, including third party material, are provided for information purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security, product or service. Aptus posts are based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate and do not purport to be a complete summary of the available data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Aptus does not endorse or take responsibility for any content, advertising, products, advice, opinions, recommendations, or other materials posted by followers or other third parties on Aptus’ social media sites. Any comments or opinions posted by another user should be attributed to that user and not Aptus.

Aptus is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aptus including our investment strategies, fees and objectives can be found in our ADV Part 2, which is available at www.aptuscapitaladvisors.com or by calling 251.517.7198.

Enhancing Outcomes

Your job is to help clients meet their goals. Part of that is capturing the compounding power of markets, part is making sure the path matches client expectations. How portfolios get from point A to point B matters.