Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Beckham: Earnings estimates show a turn, with the cuts now in the rearview mirror
Data as of 10.05.2023
Dave: but it’s interesting to note that estimates further out were never really cut
Source: Bianco as of 10.09.2023
John Luke: and trends going into this season are really divided, depending on the sector
Source: Bernstein
Brad: It’s also important to distinguish by size, as the rate hikes have impacted smaller companies much more than larger ones
Source: Strategas as of 10.10.2023
Joseph: which accelerates the trend we’ve seen since the GFC in large caps staying more lean than small caps
Source: PGM as of 10.09.2023
Dave: Credit spreads can be a canary in the coal mine, bouncing a bit but still near historic lows
Source: Strategas as of 10.12.2023
Dave: same with consumer credit, delinquencies bouncing from lows but general debt levels are low
Source: BofA as of 10.10.2023
Brett: also watching jobless claims, they remain low but one leading indicator warrants a closer look
Source: Pantheon Macro via Daily Shot as of 10.12.2023
Brad: The price of gas gets all of the Main Street chatter, but its impact has consistently fallen over time
Data as of September 2023
Joseph: and US energy producers have used technology to crank out extra oil per rig in recent years
Dave: Rising real rates have been the story of the past year, as long-term inflation expectations haven’t budged
Source: BofA as of 10.09.2023
Dave: and the bond vigilantes are back, pushing the Federal government to slow its spending growth
Source: Morgan Stanley as of 10.06.2023
Dave: as if the looming wall of maturing federal debt shouldn’t already be putting the spenders on alert
Source: Strategas as of September 2023
Beckham: Take note, our chosen industry is the one deemed most ripe for artificial intelligence (AI) impact
Data as of September 2023
Brad: We don’t make our decisions based on the calendar, but mid-October through the end of the year has historically had a positive impact on returns
Data as of September 2023
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