The Market in Pictures, October 13

by | Oct 13, 2023 | Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

Beckham: Earnings estimates show a turn, with the cuts now in the rearview mirror

 

Data as of 10.05.2023

 

Dave: but it’s interesting to note that estimates further out were never really cut

 

Source: Bianco as of 10.09.2023

 

John Luke: and trends going into this season are really divided, depending on the sector

 

Source: Bernstein

 

Brad: It’s also important to distinguish by size, as the rate hikes have impacted smaller companies much more than larger ones

 

Source: Strategas as of 10.10.2023

 

Joseph: which accelerates the trend we’ve seen since the GFC in large caps staying more lean than small caps

 

Source: PGM as of 10.09.2023

 

Dave: Credit spreads can be a canary in the coal mine, bouncing a bit but still near historic lows

 

Source: Strategas as of 10.12.2023

 

Dave: same with consumer credit, delinquencies bouncing from lows but general debt levels are low

Source: BofA as of 10.10.2023

 

Brett: also watching jobless claims, they remain low but one leading indicator warrants a closer look

 

Source: Pantheon Macro via Daily Shot as of 10.12.2023

 

Brad: The price of gas gets all of the Main Street chatter, but its impact has consistently fallen over time

 

Data as of September 2023

 

Joseph: and US energy producers have used technology to crank out extra oil per rig in recent years

 

 

Dave: Rising real rates have been the story of the past year, as long-term inflation expectations haven’t budged

 

Source: BofA as of 10.09.2023

 

Dave: and the bond vigilantes are back, pushing the Federal government to slow its spending growth

 

Source: Morgan Stanley as of 10.06.2023

 

Dave: as if the looming wall of maturing federal debt shouldn’t already be putting the spenders on alert

 

Source: Strategas as of September 2023

 

Beckham: Take note, our chosen industry is the one deemed most ripe for artificial intelligence (AI) impact

 

Data as of September 2023

 

Brad: We don’t make our decisions based on the calendar, but mid-October through the end of the year has historically had a positive impact on returns

 

Data as of September 2023

 

 

 

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

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