Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Dave: Investors are banking on a new period of earnings growth once this earnings trough is completed
Dave: but the initial reactions to Q3 earnings have been less-than-inspiring
Data as of 10.25.2023
Beckham: We all know the “market of stocks” is falling way short of the S&P this year, and it really kicked in during the March banking crisis
Source: Hi Mount Research as of 10.25.2023
Mark: triggering a historic (double-digit) performance difference between cap-weighted S&P 500 and pretty much any other weighting scheme
Source: Goldman Sachs
Brad: and extending the long hibernation of small-cap stocks
Data as of 10.25.2023
Brett: The economy is full of mixed signals, with housing activity well below recent norms
Data as of 10.25.2023
Dave: but GDP running near its highest rate of the recent past
Data as of 10.24.2023
Joseph: and while GDP does calculate real data not nominal, it does seem like much of the retail “growth” is just rising prices not more units
Data as of September 2023
Joseph: The US government debt load and fiscal condition seems to be becoming an issue for bond market participants
Data as of October 2023
John Luke: and while SOMA is the new source to tap for liquidity
Source: Fidelity as of 10.22.2023
John Luke: the key point is that the “bond vigilantes” tend to force fiscal discipline when the cost of maintaining debt gets this high
Source: Strategas as of 10.23.2023
Brad: Despite much higher rates, there is plenty of refinancing taking place especially for smaller companies
Data as of October 2023
Dave: and despite another tough year for bonds, and complete lack of a bounce
Data as of October 2023
Brad: it would be hard to call bonds “cheap” relative to history
Source: Strategas as of 10.23.2023
John Luke: The outcomes for 60/40 investors have been significantly different depending on the inflation regime
Data as of September 2023
Brett: but it’s hard to find an argument against “Stocks for the Long Run”
Source: A Wealth of Common Sense
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