Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


Dave: Investors are banking on a new period of earnings growth once this earnings trough is completed



Dave: but the initial reactions to Q3 earnings have been less-than-inspiring


Data as of 10.25.2023


Beckham: We all know the “market of stocks” is falling way short of the S&P this year, and it really kicked in during the March banking crisis


Source: Hi Mount Research as of 10.25.2023


Mark: triggering a historic (double-digit) performance difference between cap-weighted S&P 500 and pretty much any other weighting scheme


Source: Goldman Sachs


Brad: and extending the long hibernation of small-cap stocks


Data as of 10.25.2023


Brett: The economy is full of mixed signals, with housing activity well below recent norms


Data as of 10.25.2023


Dave: but GDP running near its highest rate of the recent past 


Data as of 10.24.2023


Joseph: and while GDP does calculate real data not nominal, it does seem like much of the retail “growth” is just rising prices not more units


Data as of September 2023


Joseph: The US government debt load and fiscal condition seems to be becoming an issue for bond market participants


Data as of October 2023


John Luke: and while SOMA is the new source to tap for liquidity


Source: Fidelity as of 10.22.2023


John Luke: the key point is that the “bond vigilantes” tend to force fiscal discipline when the cost of maintaining debt gets this high


Source: Strategas as of 10.23.2023


Brad: Despite much higher rates, there is plenty of refinancing taking place especially for smaller companies


Data as of October 2023


Dave: and despite another tough year for bonds, and complete lack of a bounce


Data as of October 2023


Brad: it would be hard to call bonds “cheap” relative to history


Source: Strategas as of 10.23.2023


John Luke: The outcomes for 60/40 investors have been significantly different depending on the inflation regime


Data as of September 2023


Brett: but it’s hard to find an argument against “Stocks for the Long Run”


Source: A Wealth of Common Sense







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