Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


John Luke: The first reaction to the jobs report was to sell, but continued slowing of wage growth became a bullish takeaway


Source: Bloomberg as of 10.06.2023


Joseph: even with the slowing wage growth, it would be out of the norm to just ease rates lower without a crisis


Data as of October 2023


Brad: The inverted yield curve has been historic but the past few weeks have seen a shrink in its extremeness


Source: Strategas as of 10.04.2023


Joseph: It’s been real yields driving this year’s bump in rates, not expectations for higher long-term inflation


Source: TS Lombard as of 10.02.2023


John Luke: and rising real yields have historically been a contributor to lower valuations for stocks


Data as of October 2023


Dave: Despite the swift rise, no reporting analyst sees much more upside for 10 year rates


Source: Strategas as of 10.02.2023


Mark: A rising concern for investors has been the steep rise in future interest expense for the US government

Source: Goldman Sachs as of September 2023


John Luke: also seen in debt costs in relation to tax revenues


Data as of September 2023


John Luke: resulting from higher rates but also higher government spending


Source: Apollo as of 10.04.2023


Beckham: Like clockwork, investment managers grow more cautious about stocks as prices fall


Source: NAAIM as of 10.02.2023


Beckham: Laying the groundwork for the next wall of worry for stocks


Data as of 10.03.2023


Dave: Earnings estimates as a whole have been rising from the spring lows


Source: Bernstein as of September 2023


Dave: but there’s a wide range of contributors depending on which sector you’re watching


Source: Strategas as of 10.04.2023


John Luke: Banks are a perfect example of the economic debate, sitting on large losses on their bond holdings


Data as of September 2023


Dave: but taking very few charge offs on commercial real estate despite the obvious secular headwinds


Source: JP Morgan as of September 2023


Brad: This is probably what will define the next market leg…does market breadth align through a Magnificent 7 fall, or a broader rally?


Source: Strategas as of 10.02.2023




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