Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
John Luke: The first reaction to the jobs report was to sell, but continued slowing of wage growth became a bullish takeaway
Source: Bloomberg as of 10.06.2023
Joseph: even with the slowing wage growth, it would be out of the norm to just ease rates lower without a crisis
Data as of October 2023
Brad: The inverted yield curve has been historic but the past few weeks have seen a shrink in its extremeness
Source: Strategas as of 10.04.2023
Joseph: It’s been real yields driving this year’s bump in rates, not expectations for higher long-term inflation
Source: TS Lombard as of 10.02.2023
John Luke: and rising real yields have historically been a contributor to lower valuations for stocks
Data as of October 2023
Dave: Despite the swift rise, no reporting analyst sees much more upside for 10 year rates
Source: Strategas as of 10.02.2023
Mark: A rising concern for investors has been the steep rise in future interest expense for the US government
Source: Goldman Sachs as of September 2023
John Luke: also seen in debt costs in relation to tax revenues
Data as of September 2023
John Luke: resulting from higher rates but also higher government spending
Source: Apollo as of 10.04.2023
Beckham: Like clockwork, investment managers grow more cautious about stocks as prices fall
Source: NAAIM as of 10.02.2023
Beckham: Laying the groundwork for the next wall of worry for stocks
Data as of 10.03.2023
Dave: Earnings estimates as a whole have been rising from the spring lows
Source: Bernstein as of September 2023
Dave: but there’s a wide range of contributors depending on which sector you’re watching
Source: Strategas as of 10.04.2023
John Luke: Banks are a perfect example of the economic debate, sitting on large losses on their bond holdings
Data as of September 2023
Dave: but taking very few charge offs on commercial real estate despite the obvious secular headwinds
Source: JP Morgan as of September 2023
Brad: This is probably what will define the next market leg…does market breadth align through a Magnificent 7 fall, or a broader rally?
Source: Strategas as of 10.02.2023
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