Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Brett: The massive stimulus announcements out of China were the story of the week
Data as of 09.26.2024
Brian: though it will take a lot more to undo the damage done to portfolios over the years
Data as of 09.26.2024
John Luke: Government inflation measures continue to trend lower
Source: @LizAnnSonders as of 09.27.2024
Arch: leading to increasing expectations of another 50 basis point cut in the Fed Funds rate
Source: CME FedWatchTool
John Luke: though the “terminal rate” is creeping higher versus the expectations from a year ago
Data as of 09.24.2024
Brad: Recession vs. soft landing is turning into a tossup at least as far as the rates market is concerned
Data as of 09.23.2024
John Luke: Right now, we’re seeing two different economies depending on the income level of the consumer
Source: @samuelrines as of 09.25
Beckham: At the corporate level, the unusual presence of earnings growth at the start of the cutting cycle
Data as of 09.25.2024
Brad: We also see a level of productivity relative to the start of some past cutting cycles
Source: Paulsen Perspectives as of 09.24.2024
Dave: and the presence of strong sales and margin growth since the start of the decade
Beckham: with additional possibilities for margin expansion in the years ahead
Brad: We’re also seeing improvement from the broader list of stocks, vs. prior dominance by megacap tech
Data as of 09.18.2024
Dave: driven in part by hopes of better earnings growth in sectors that had been lagging
JD: One area that’s been hugely supportive of the economy this decade has been the low cost of existing mortgages
John Luke: and while mortgage originations have slowed dramatically in this rate-hiking cycle, the recent fall in rates could trigger some fresh activity
Data as of August 2024
Brian: High-yield bonds have been less than ideal as a strategic allocation
Source: Aptus as of 09.25.2024
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