Rearview to Windshield, December 2022

November 2022 Market Recap: The S&P 500 bounce in November (+5.4%) occurred as the US yield curve inverted further as the 10 year treasury yields rallied. This is the second straight month of strong gains, as October returned +8.1%. It feels as if the market is...

The Market in Pictures, December 2

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   JL: This year stands alone in modern history, for its combination of stock / bond weakness   Data as...

Was that the Powell Pivot 2.0?

Powell’s comments and the market response yesterday were noteworthy. The equity market rose (SPX +3.05%) while bond yields rallied across the yield curve following Powell’s Brookings Institute presentation. The market was positioned for a hawkish speech and...

The Divergence in Energy Stocks vs. Crude

In the last two weeks, we’ve received several inquiries regarding energy equity outperformance relative to declining oil prices. Many people reference some version of the following chart:   Source: Strategas, 11/29/22   For a commodity-driven sector, the...

The Market in Pictures, November 25

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Dave: As is usually the case, this equity rally has attracted inflows   Source: Strategas as of...

A Rant on the Yield Curve Inversion

Where Does the Terminal Rate Need to Go?    Source: Bloomberg. As of 11/18/22.    It’s pretty clear the pace of rate hikes will slow down soon, although we believe we are far from returning to the easy money policy experienced the last 10+ years. Given the...