What Are Market Bulls Expecting?

You could be forgiven in thinking that the last quarter felt like one of the longest three months of your life. In what now seems an eternity ago, it could be hard to forget that the S&P 500 enjoyed a total return of more than 30% in 2019.  What has not been so...

Cheap or Expensive 🤷‍

“I can’t make sense of this market” – we’ve heard that a few times during this market rip higher.  For any readers who have no clue what to think, hopefully this will help. Side Note – We don’t have a dog in this fight.  We could make a compelling case either...
Can the Fed Keep Mortgages Propped??

Can the Fed Keep Mortgages Propped??

Avoiding Agency Mortgage Allocations in our Models We’ve been saying since the middle of last year that the percentage of total returns in fixed income coming from price return wouldn’t likely be the same into the future. Interest rates have nosedived lower following...
Can the Fed Keep Mortgages Propped??

What Bonds Do You Own?

The mathematics of compounding: big losses are essentially ALL that matter to your rate of compounding, not the small losses—and not even the big or small gains. The big losses literally destroy your geometric returns and, equivalently, your wealth, through what I...
Welcome to the New Value

Welcome to the New Value

“To resist change is like holding your breath – if you persist, you will die”. Lao Tsu It seems no style of investing has a more dogmatic, rear-view mirror approach than classic value investing. Even the word “value” is a loaded term that is self-evident, and its...
Welcome to the New Value

The Importance of “E” in P/E

Don’t Fall into a Value Trap!   The core tenet of many value investing strategies is often mean reversion. Simply put, this is when managers bet that bad things will improve – that the poor fundamentals of a company won’t last. During a period of...