Soft or Hard Landing… Which is It?

A Central Bank’s place in an economy is to be the behind-the-scenes moderator of financial conditions. Here in the US, they specifically have two jobs: price stability and full employment. Their job is to step into the mix when financial conditions overly...

Aptus Musings: Fed Up With Inflation

Obviously, yesterday’s news regarding the market was all about the Fed. Just a few weeks ago, it seemed very unrealistic that the market would get a 75bp hike in June. Yet, due to Friday’s CPI report and a “mysterious” WSJ article on Monday, it created an environment...

May CPI Forcing the Fed’s Hand

Peak Inflation… Think Again!   Source: Bianco Research. As of 6/10/22   CPI rose 1.0% MoM and 8.6% YoY (a new high) in May. The core CPI again surged 0.6% MoM and 6.0% YoY. Inflation looks to be broadening…   The Bones of the Report   May’s report...

Well, QT is Finally Upon Us

We are beginning a new regime as the Fed moves to reduce the size of its balance sheet which has grown to nearly $9 Trillion. Since March 2020, the Fed has made more than $4T in bond purchases. Now, to fight inflation, the Fed will begin to let some of their bonds...

The Second Leg to Drop

First, I really wanted to touch base after yesterday’s price decline across indices – it was the worst day since June 2020. I know that I have been saying for quite some time that the market will continue to remain volatile until it perceives that we have seen some...