by John Luke Tyner | Dec 7, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Fed expectations moved drastically last week. On Friday, November 24, markets were pricing in three cuts in 2024, with the first in June (orange). By Friday, December 1, the market was pricing in five cuts in 2024, starting around April (blue). Source: Bianco...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 22, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Last week, the CPI & PPI print both came in weaker than expected. The market responded favorably with stocks up and yields dropping. The bigger change in our minds was the drop in forward interest rate expectations where the market continues to price a lower...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 9, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Last week brought a substantial rally in bonds following a brutal three-month span of higher rates. There are a couple of reasons we can point to for the move lower in rates: The US Treasury cut back slightly on the amount of long-term bonds it’s planning to auction,...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 2, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
As broadly expected, the Fed left their target Fed Funds rate unchanged at the 5.25% to 5.50% range. The pause from July to November marks the longest period without an increase since the liftoff in March of 2022. Powell did leave the door open for further tightening,...
by John Luke Tyner | Oct 25, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Probable Fed Pause in November Fed Chair Powell’s commentary last week pointed to the relentless rise in longer-dated Treasury yields that was creating an environment of tighter financial conditions. This should help do some of the Fed’s work and allow them to...
by John Luke Tyner | Oct 11, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Inflation Still a Concern September PPI rose 0.5%, more than the 0.3% gain expected and following a 0.7% increase the month prior. Year-over-year, producer prices rose 2.2% in September, up from the 2.0% gain in August and marking the largest increase in five months,...
