Was that the Powell Pivot 2.0?

Powell’s comments and the market response yesterday were noteworthy. The equity market rose (SPX +3.05%) while bond yields rallied across the yield curve following Powell’s Brookings Institute presentation. The market was positioned for a hawkish speech and...

A Rant on the Yield Curve Inversion

Where Does the Terminal Rate Need to Go?    Source: Bloomberg. As of 11/18/22.    It’s pretty clear the pace of rate hikes will slow down soon, although we believe we are far from returning to the easy money policy experienced the last 10+ years. Given the...

A Good Day for The Fed

Year-over-year, CPI rose 7.7%, down from the 8.2% pace reported the month prior and the fourth consecutive month of cooling price pressures, albeit still near a four-decade high. It rose 0.4% in October, less than the 0.6% gain expected and following a similar...

What Could Stop the Fed?

Newton’s First Law of Motion states that an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless an external force acts upon it. The Fed is in motion (hiking rates/QT) and until the external force (lower inflation) acts upon it, expect them to stay in motion (higher...

Thoughts on Interest Rates

We’ve had a number of questions regarding peak interest rates. Interest rates have of course been a hot topic in 2022… the 4th worst year for government bonds since 1721 has led to an interesting backdrop of uncharted waters. Interest rates can be confusing, and we’ve...

10-Year Treasuries Hit 15-Year High

Treasury yields are once again higher this morning with the 10-year Treasury hitting its highest yield in 15 years. It’s currently at 4.32% which matches yields last visited in 2007. The 10-year yield has risen since it hit an intra-day low on Monday, climbing to...