by John Luke Tyner | Mar 6, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
Atlanta Fed GDP Now Shows First Signs of GDP Sputtering in Several Years The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 came in at -2.8% on March 3, down from -1.5% on February 28. Following releases from...
by John Luke Tyner | Feb 21, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
Quantitative Tightening Ending Soon This week’s press about the Fed minutes release were the same: the Fed is worried about tariffs and is in no rush to lower rates. But beneath the headline the Fed signaled Quantitative Tightening (QT) for Treasuries is...
by John Luke Tyner | Feb 12, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
CPI rose 0.5% in January, above the 0.3% gain expected and an uptick from a 0.4% increase in December. Year-over-year, prices rose 3.0%, a tenth of a percentage point higher than expected and the fourth consecutive month of acceleration. Source: Stifel as of...
by John Luke Tyner | Feb 6, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
FOMC Update The January FOMC meeting went as expected (no rate cut). Chairman Powell offered limited forward guidance, stating that “we’re meaningfully above” the neutral rate for fed funds but countered that by noting the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates. ...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 24, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
Progress on the Debt to GDP Ratios… Kinda The CBO, a non-partisan budget agency, updated its forecasts for the U.S. budget deficits for the next 10 years. The report showed a slightly improved fiscal picture compared to its previous outlook published back in June...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 10, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
The market is currently pricing in 1.53 cuts for 2025 (Fed says 2). As we’ve said before, we believe the FOMC has gotten its rate closer to neutral. This positions them to patiently sit back and monitor the economy and incoming data, specifically related to policy...
