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The Aptus Blog

Market notes, charts, investment concepts, and timely market updates, directly from our investment team.

2026-10-30 · Market UpdatesJD at ETF Oasis on The Dennis Rodman EffectOur Founder and CIO JD Gardner, CFA, CMT sat down with industry expert Lara Crigger at the ETF Oasis at Future Proof. JD made the case that options can work better than b2026-10-30 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 30Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from a sharp October rotation out 2026-10-28 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 2026 Earnings PreviewEveryone knows my favorite time of the year is earnings season. For a few weeks, the market gets real data on what should actually drive stock prices (i.e., earnings and 2026-10-23 · Investment ConceptsDon’t Pay a Loyalty TaxMutual fund shareholders who stay are paying for the ones who left. You don’t have to. Distribution season came early and came in heavy. By mid-October, 284 funds were al2026-10-23 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 23Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from the money growth behind recor2026-10-16 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 16Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from a four-year bull market built2026-10-12 · Bonds & RatesIs the Bond Market Overreacting?As Treasury bonds take out the highest yield levels since the early 2000s, there is no scarcity of headlines hitting the tape. Treasuries have been trading like a risk as2026-10-09 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 9Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from a hawkish repricing in rates 2026-10-06 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, October 2026Higher Rates, Resilient Stocks +2.30% S&P 500 Q3 Return -0.35% S&P 500 September Return 31.7% ’26 Estimate S&P 500 Earnings Growth 5.30% 10-Yr Treasury Yield 2026-10-02 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 2Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from Fed hike fears backing off, t2026-10-01 · Process PapersThe Three Cs: How We Judge Any Option Before We Use ItAt Aptus, we treat volatility as an asset class. We own hedges so we can own more stocks. Most readers of our commentary have heard that more than once. But options do mo2026-09-29 · Investment ConceptsDon’t Just Check the Buffer, Check the CapPicture the same car lease at two different dealers: same exact car, same monthly payment, same coverage if something breaks. The only difference is that one lets you dri2026-09-25 · Investment ConceptsA Wrapper Is Not a Risk Reduction StrategyPlenty of bottled fruit smoothies carry as much sugar as a can of Coke, and does anybody drink a Coke at 8 am and feel good about it? The smoothie has a strawberry on the2026-09-25 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 25Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity: from a Fed pushed back into hiking2026-09-21 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Never Let a Crisis Go to WasteThis year, Fall is arriving alongside a debt conversation that never really goes away, and rates that have climbed to levels unseen in over a decade+. Which brings us to 2026-09-18 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 18Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from a Fed pushed back into hiking2026-09-17 · Bonds & RatesWhat’s Really Driving Yields HigherThe 10-year Treasury yield is sitting around 5.00%, and the 30-year at ~5.37% (as of 9/16/26) — both brushing up against levels last seen in 2007. The Fed met today and d2026-09-11 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 11Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. This week’s charts follow a bond market repricing risk across the curve, from a global yield selloff and a record 2026-09-09 · Investment ConceptsA Steady Allocation Is Not Always an Unmanaged OneIn 1975, a Philadelphia inventor named Garrett Brown mailed around a reel of shots that seemed impossible at the time. One of them followed his girlfriend up the seventy-2026-09-04 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 4Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summaries of investor activity, from an economy that’s keeping cons2026-09-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, September 2026Market Recap – Earnings Growth Was the Star in August: August 2026 opened with real momentum and closed under a shadow of caution. The S&P 500 pushed to an all-time c2026-09-03 · Bonds & RatesThe Market Is Doing The Fed’s WorkLast Friday morning at Jackson Hole, Chairman Warsh made the case that it’s hard to argue financial conditions are restrictive. As of Wednesday morning, the bond market h2026-08-28 · Bonds & RatesJackson Hole: Project RealignmentFed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks provided the market with what participants hoped for: A more thorough view from the Fed on the economy and inflation, which appeare2026-08-28 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 28Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of the current market, from strong corporate profits and2026-08-21 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 21Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from a market full of dispersion, 2026-08-20 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q2 2026 Earnings RecapTLDR: Earnings were great. I considered using only a picture book to depict this past quarter’s earnings results because words simply can’t do it justice … and I’ve used 2026-08-18 · Investment ConceptsThe Wealthy’s Tax Playbook Finally Gets a Retail TickerBack in 1900, you didn’t take a great family picture so much as you had one painted. John Singer Sargent, a successful portrait painter at the time, charged ~$5,000 a por2026-08-14 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 14Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. This week’s charts weigh a rate-and-calendar risk creeping back into focus against an earnings and labor backdrop 2026-08-13 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Leverage in the CloudTalking bearishly about datacenters is about as cool as Ray Dalio hitting up Ibiza for his 77th birthday. Nonetheless, I’ve been repeatedly asked about datacenters and th2026-08-07 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Chasing Warsh’s Reaction FunctionAll things considered, a flat month for the S&P in July feels pretty heroic given the headlines – a hedge fund implosion, historic Yen intervention, and a post-FOMC b2026-08-07 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 7Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from a continuing bull market, to 2026-08-05 · Market UpdatesNo Leaks AllowedMobile Bay is protected by Fort Morgan on one side and Fort Gaines on the other. There’s history— “Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!”—and an abundance of life at the 2026-08-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, August 2026Equity Recap – The Year Has Been a Great Lesson in Resilience: In July 2026, equity markets experienced a sharp internal rotation as investors pulled back from high-flyin2026-07-31 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 31Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. This week’s charts follow a market starting to charge for risk in its favorite trade, a momentum reversal unlike a2026-07-30 · Bonds & RatesFOMC: One Last Pause?The FOMC left the fed funds rate unchanged, with no action for the fifth consecutive meeting, even as inflation lingers above target. No change was the broad consensus; h2026-07-29 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q2 2026 Earnings PreviewFirst, it’s been a longstanding tradition for me to always send out Ronald Reagan’s Soldier’s Pledge on the 4th of July… I’m just a little (lotta) late this year. It’s a 2026-07-24 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 24Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. This week’s charts center on a violent rotation beneath a calm surface: semis selling off hard, AI winners giving 2026-07-21 · Investment ConceptsWhat Is “Safe” Depends on When You Need the MoneyI rarely share other people’s charts in these posts. This one is too good not to share. Chart source: Cullen Roche, Discipline Funds 07.15.2026 Ask most investors to rank2026-07-20 · Investment ConceptsReturn of Capital: The Good, the Bad, the MisunderstoodNot every dollar an investment pays out is income. And not every dollar is taxed the same (or, in some cases, taxed at all). Return of capital (RoC) does not change what 2026-07-17 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 17Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from asset convergence and diverge2026-07-16 · Bonds & RatesAre We Hitting an Inflation Trifecta?Every so often, you see a shift in the data that lines up with a transitional moment; this week’s developments could be that moment. We just had three instances that coul2026-07-13 · Investment ConceptsTrump Accounts: The Power of the Last DoublingOn July 4, a new kind of account opened for business. Trump Accounts, created by the 2025 reconciliation law, are tax-deferred investment accounts for children. Kids born2026-07-10 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 10Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from a historic rally with improvi2026-07-07 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, July 2026Equity Recap – The First Half of 2026 Has Been a Lesson in Resilience, But Not Stability: S&P 500 Has Best Quarter Since 2020, and NASDAQ Has Second Best Since 2001: 2026-07-02 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 2Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from Q2 standouts to sector disper2026-07-01 · Investment ConceptsGross vs. Take-Home: What a Bond Actually Pays After TaxYou don’t earn your gross salary. The number on the offer letter and the number in your bank account are two different figures, and everyone understands the gap. Withhold2026-06-26 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, June 26Our team reviews a vast amount of research and market data each week to isolate the signals that matter most. This week’s selection steps back to examine a market broaden2026-06-23 · Investment ConceptsThe One Policy Investors SkipCommon practice is to insure your house, your car, your life, your health, and even your dog. Then you reach what may be the largest financial asset many families own, th2026-06-18 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, June 19Our team reviews a massive amount of institutional research throughout the week to isolate the signals that matter most. This week’s selection steps back to appreciate th2026-06-18 · Bonds & RatesWarsh Lays Down the LawThe Federal Reserve left the Fed Funds rate unchanged in a 3.50%-3.75% range today, as expected. The dot-plot median forecast increased by 1/8 of a point this year and by2026-06-12 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, June 12Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of (SpaceX-free) charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from single stock mo2026-06-10 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, June 2026Tech Gains and AI Optimism Defy Seasonal Slumps in May: The global financial markets put on a resilient performance, shunning the traditional “Sell in May and go away” se2026-06-05 · Investment ConceptsAre Data Centers the New Canals?Three boom and bust stories from American capital history. None of them is a forecast for AI. Each is here for what it says about how a portfolio survives whichever outco2026-06-05 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, June 5Our team reviews a vast amount of market research and economic data every day. This week’s selection highlights the resilience of the labor market, the broadening dominan2026-06-02 · Investment ConceptsThe Human EdgeThis post is different. Maybe too different. I’m not sure why I’m writing it here, but these things have been heavy on my mind, so here it goes. My grandaddy has a 1976 C2026-05-29 · Bonds & RatesThe Bond Environment Entering the Warsh RegimeTreasury Curve Movements The yield curve today looks drastically different than the beginning of the year. The largest increases have occurred in the belly of the yield c2026-05-29 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, May 29Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from stocks catching up with earni2026-05-28 · Investment ConceptsThe Faucet and the Well: Cash Flow With a Lower Tax BillA farmer who needs 40,000 gallons of water a day has a few ways to get it. One is a faucet stuck in the on position. Water flows continuously into a trough whether the fa2026-05-22 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, May 22Our research team parses a vast amount of institutional data and market research daily to isolate the key signals that matter. This week’s selection highlights a structur2026-05-21 · Investment ConceptsThe Hidden Risk That Hurts Retirement: Rethinking LongevityIn 1977, the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Nutrition and Human Needs released its Dietary Goals for the United States. The recommendations were straightforward. Eat les
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