by John Luke Tyner | Jun 24, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Fed Update Chairman Powell was before Congress this week and admitted several things: 1) rate hikes will not likely bring down cost of gas; 2) rate hikes will not likely bring down the cost of food (wheat, etc); and 3) a soft landing is unlikely, and growth is coming...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 14, 2022 | Blog, Bonds, Macro Updates
Peak Inflation… Think Again! Source: Bianco Research. As of 6/10/22 CPI rose 1.0% MoM and 8.6% YoY (a new high) in May. The core CPI again surged 0.6% MoM and 6.0% YoY. Inflation looks to be broadening… The Bones of the Report May’s report...
by John Luke Tyner | May 26, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Municipal bonds have been thrown out with the bathwater since the beginning of the year as the Fed gets serious about taming inflation and in turn the market pushing interest rates higher. The decline in price (and increase in yield) could make the current landscape...
by John Luke Tyner | May 20, 2022 | Blog, Bonds, Market Updates
* Fed Expected to Hike 50bps at Next Two Meetings. As you can see below, the odds on both are at 100%. Given the persistence of inflation, the Fed has been put into defensive mode (i.e., forcefully tightening policy) even into a growth slowdown. Source: Bianco...
by John Luke Tyner | May 6, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
May 5th, 2022 – Bond Market Week Over Week Update * Fed Hikes 50bps and Starts QT, albeit more Slowly than Expected. The Fed hiked rates 50 bps (instead of 75) and basically ruled out 75 bps increases going forward. In our opinion, the Fed eased policy...
by John Luke Tyner | Apr 29, 2022 | Blog, Bonds, Macro Updates
Decomposing Bond Yields Let’s first think about the components of a bond’s yield. At the simplest level, Treasury yields are simply the average expected Fed funds rate over the maturity plus a term premium. A good portion of the recent move in rates has been a direct...
