by John Luke Tyner | Jun 18, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
The Federal Reserve left the Fed Funds rate unchanged in a 3.50%-3.75% range today, as expected. The dot-plot median forecast increased by 1/8 of a point this year and by ¼ point in both ‘27 and ’28. The longer-run median declined from 3.125% to 3.063%. Notably, there...
by John Luke Tyner | May 29, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Treasury Curve Movements The yield curve today looks drastically different than the beginning of the year. The largest increases have occurred in the belly of the yield curve, with 2s rising the most at a 59 bp increase since the start of the year, with lesser...
by John Luke Tyner | May 14, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Core CPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.38% in April after rising 0.20% in March. The Year over Year (YoY) Core rose from 2.60% to 2.74%. Headline CPI was up 0.64% on the heels of a 0.87% increase in March, both months elevated by higher fuel prices. YoY CPI inflation...
by Joseph Sykora | Apr 22, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
President Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, appeared before the US Senate seeking ultimate approval to be named the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve. While the US President may be the “Leader of the Free World,” one could make a strong argument that the US Federal...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 27, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Market Pricing Fed Hikes? The probability of a Fed hike in September has risen to nearly 60%. The 2-year Treasury topped 4% and is trading ~39bps above the target Fed funds rate (3.63%). Typically, you only see the 2 year this far above the fed funds rate when the...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 12, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
February CPI: As Expected In February, the CPI rose 0.267% headline and 0.216% core, effectively matching the consensus of 0.3% and 0.2%. Year-on-year, the headline index was a tad higher, from 2.39% to 2.43%, while the core slipped a bit from 2.51% to 2.47%. Food...
