FOMC Hedges a Bit

As expected, the Fed lowered the federal funds target rate 25bps on Wednesday to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the second consecutive rate reduction this year and now marking a total of 50bps in cuts so far in 2025 and 150bps since September of last year.   Source:...

Another All Clear for Rate Cuts

The September CPI report, delayed for more than two weeks, was finally released this morning. The September Inflation data is an important number used to calculate the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living (COLA) adjustment; COLA is now set to increase 2.8% for 2026 (a...

The State of Bonds Entering Q4

Tug of War:  Goods vs Services Inflation   Goods inflation is rising because of tariffs, while the rise in services prices stabilizes.   Source: Apollo. As of 9/22/25.   As a whole, 72% of CPI components are growing faster than the Fed’s 2% inflation...

September 2025 FOMC: A Risk Management Cut

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected by a quarter point, to a stated range of 4.0-4.25%. This marks 125 bps in reductions since initiating the cutting cycle last September, but was the first cut since December. The long pause was in response to fears of...

Around the Bond Market, September 2025

CPI came in a touch hotter than expected in August, with the headline rising 0.382%, rounding to 0.4%, and the core rising 0.346%, rounding down to 0.3%. The consensus was 0.3% for both. The YoY CPI inflation rate rose from 2.732% to 2.939%, while the core YoY rose...

Opportunity in Municipal Bonds?

We wanted to put together a note to discuss the recent underperformance of municipal bonds relative to their taxable brethren (MUB vs AGG, shown below). Tax-free bonds have faced a number of headwinds throughout 2025, and even with the decline in interest rates, they...