by John Luke Tyner | Feb 13, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Yield Curve Steepening Trend Continues The graphic below shows the shape of the current yield curve (black) vs. a month ago (red), and vs. 1 year ago (blue). As the Fed has reduced its policy rate, the yield curve has steepened due to the front end declining while...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 30, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
January FOMC The Fed held its policy rate in the 3.5-3.75% range earlier this week, largely as expected. The vote was 10-2, where Governors Miran and Waller dissented in favor of a -25bp reduction (Bowman did not dissent). The Fed noted better growth and “some...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 15, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Another Cool-ish Inflation Report The CPI rose +0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y in Dec. The core (ex-food & energy) measure was +0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y. Source: Stifel as of 01.13.2026 Details of the report: Transportation services prices were flat, despite a...
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 31, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
On their own, bonds have been better in 2025 than in recent years. Capital appreciation across the complex may be limited from here, but the bigger story is the support this environment can lend to overall economic conditions. A few key themes that are emerging…...
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 11, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
The FOMC release was less hawkish than feared (milkshake) with a dovish presser (cherry on top). We view December 10th’s move as a risk management cut given a slowing job market and limited inflation fears (we’re above target, but inflation break-evens...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 17, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
Fewer Cuts? The Fed funds futures market now shows a 48% chance of a December rate cut, down from 100% on the day of the October Fed meeting. We saw a Bloomberg News headline that read, “Fed Policy in Doubt with Kashkari on the Fence”. However, in December, it is...
