by John Luke Tyner | Jul 18, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
Core CPI came in softer than expected for the 5th straight month: 0.2%, month over month (MoM) and 2.9% year over year (YoY). The YoY number did tick up slightly given the low comp rolling off from last year (monthly numbers shown on graphic below). ...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 20, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
As expected, the Fed opted to hold interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting in a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows an expectation for higher inflation and slower growth, resulting in no change to the median...
by John Luke Tyner | May 30, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
While there is certainly a lot going on in rates markets, it’s been interesting to see participants give more attention to the fiscal backdrop of the US government. It comes as no surprise that the weighted average cost of our government debt has increased...
by John Luke Tyner | May 21, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
Last Friday, Moody’s rating agency lowered the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 (their version of AA+). Technically, this doesn’t change the US’s overall credit rating because it was already split-rated AA+. This follows downgrades by S&P in 2011 and Fitch in...
by John Luke Tyner | May 8, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
→ FED SAYS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OUTLOOK HAS ‘INCREASED FURTHER’ → FED: RISKS OF HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT, HIGHER INFLATION HAVE RISEN → FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 4.25%-4.5% TARGET RANGE Source: Bloomberg as of 05.7.2025 The Fed has cut the fed funds...
by John Luke Tyner | Apr 25, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
President Trump Critiques the Fed Earlier this week, President Trump indicated he thinks the Fed should be “early, or on time” cutting rates, but not “too late,” adding it is “a perfect time to lower the rate.” Pressed by a reporter asking if the President has the...
