Opportunity in Municipal Bonds?

We wanted to put together a note to discuss the recent underperformance of municipal bonds relative to their taxable brethren (MUB vs AGG, shown below). Tax-free bonds have faced a number of headwinds throughout 2025, and even with the decline in interest rates, they...

Notes from Jackson Hole

Fed Chairman Jay Powell finally delivered his long-anticipated address to leading economists and academics. A few quotes that caught our attention, not to mention the market’s attention:   “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks...

FOMC : Searching for the Neutral Rate

The Fed left rates unchanged for its 5th straight meeting — keeping the fed funds range 4.25%-4.5% which was widely expected. Governors Miki Bowman and Chris Waller dissented in favor of a 0.25% cut. It was the first double-dissent by governors since 1993.  ...

Strong Sales, Weak Inflation

Core CPI came in softer than expected for the 5th straight month: 0.2%, month over month (MoM) and 2.9% year over year (YoY). The YoY number did tick up slightly given the low comp rolling off from last year (monthly numbers shown on graphic below).    ...

June 2025 FOMC

As expected, the Fed opted to hold interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting in a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows an expectation for higher inflation and slower growth, resulting in no change to the median...