by John Luke Tyner | Dec 31, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
On their own, bonds have been better in 2025 than in recent years. Capital appreciation across the complex may be limited from here, but the bigger story is the support this environment can lend to overall economic conditions. A few key themes that are emerging…...
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 11, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
The FOMC release was less hawkish than feared (milkshake) with a dovish presser (cherry on top). We view December 10th’s move as a risk management cut given a slowing job market and limited inflation fears (we’re above target, but inflation break-evens...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 17, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
Fewer Cuts? The Fed funds futures market now shows a 48% chance of a December rate cut, down from 100% on the day of the October Fed meeting. We saw a Bloomberg News headline that read, “Fed Policy in Doubt with Kashkari on the Fence”. However, in December, it is...
by Aptus PM Team | Oct 31, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
As expected, the Fed lowered the federal funds target rate 25bps on Wednesday to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the second consecutive rate reduction this year and now marking a total of 50bps in cuts so far in 2025 and 150bps since September of last year. Source:...
by Aptus PM Team | Oct 24, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
The September CPI report, delayed for more than two weeks, was finally released this morning. The September Inflation data is an important number used to calculate the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living (COLA) adjustment; COLA is now set to increase 2.8% for 2026 (a...
by Aptus PM Team | Sep 26, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
Tug of War: Goods vs Services Inflation Goods inflation is rising because of tariffs, while the rise in services prices stabilizes. Source: Apollo. As of 9/22/25. As a whole, 72% of CPI components are growing faster than the Fed’s 2% inflation...
