Around the Bond Market, September 2025

CPI came in a touch hotter than expected in August, with the headline rising 0.382%, rounding to 0.4%, and the core rising 0.346%, rounding down to 0.3%. The consensus was 0.3% for both. The YoY CPI inflation rate rose from 2.732% to 2.939%, while the core YoY rose...

Opportunity in Municipal Bonds?

We wanted to put together a note to discuss the recent underperformance of municipal bonds relative to their taxable brethren (MUB vs AGG, shown below). Tax-free bonds have faced a number of headwinds throughout 2025, and even with the decline in interest rates, they...

Notes from Jackson Hole

Fed Chairman Jay Powell finally delivered his long-anticipated address to leading economists and academics. A few quotes that caught our attention, not to mention the market’s attention:   “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks...

FOMC : Searching for the Neutral Rate

The Fed left rates unchanged for its 5th straight meeting — keeping the fed funds range 4.25%-4.5% which was widely expected. Governors Miki Bowman and Chris Waller dissented in favor of a 0.25% cut. It was the first double-dissent by governors since 1993.  ...

Strong Sales, Weak Inflation

Core CPI came in softer than expected for the 5th straight month: 0.2%, month over month (MoM) and 2.9% year over year (YoY). The YoY number did tick up slightly given the low comp rolling off from last year (monthly numbers shown on graphic below).    ...