September 2025 FOMC: A Risk Management Cut

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected by a quarter point, to a stated range of 4.0-4.25%. This marks 125 bps in reductions since initiating the cutting cycle last September, but was the first cut since December. The long pause was in response to fears of...

Around the Bond Market, September 2025

CPI came in a touch hotter than expected in August, with the headline rising 0.382%, rounding to 0.4%, and the core rising 0.346%, rounding down to 0.3%. The consensus was 0.3% for both. The YoY CPI inflation rate rose from 2.732% to 2.939%, while the core YoY rose...

Opportunity in Municipal Bonds?

We wanted to put together a note to discuss the recent underperformance of municipal bonds relative to their taxable brethren (MUB vs AGG, shown below). Tax-free bonds have faced a number of headwinds throughout 2025, and even with the decline in interest rates, they...

Notes from Jackson Hole

Fed Chairman Jay Powell finally delivered his long-anticipated address to leading economists and academics. A few quotes that caught our attention, not to mention the market’s attention:   “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks...

FOMC : Searching for the Neutral Rate

The Fed left rates unchanged for its 5th straight meeting — keeping the fed funds range 4.25%-4.5% which was widely expected. Governors Miki Bowman and Chris Waller dissented in favor of a 0.25% cut. It was the first double-dissent by governors since 1993.  ...