FOMC : Searching for the Neutral Rate

The Fed left rates unchanged for its 5th straight meeting — keeping the fed funds range 4.25%-4.5% which was widely expected. Governors Miki Bowman and Chris Waller dissented in favor of a 0.25% cut. It was the first double-dissent by governors since 1993.  ...

Strong Sales, Weak Inflation

Core CPI came in softer than expected for the 5th straight month: 0.2%, month over month (MoM) and 2.9% year over year (YoY). The YoY number did tick up slightly given the low comp rolling off from last year (monthly numbers shown on graphic below).    ...

June 2025 FOMC

As expected, the Fed opted to hold interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting in a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows an expectation for higher inflation and slower growth, resulting in no change to the median...

Breaking Down 10 Year Bond Yields

While there is certainly a lot going on in rates markets, it’s been interesting to see participants give more attention to the fiscal backdrop of the US government. It comes as no surprise that the weighted average cost of our government debt has increased...

Moody’s Downgrade: Should We Care?

Last Friday, Moody’s rating agency lowered the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 (their version of AA+). Technically, this doesn’t change the US’s overall credit rating because it was already split-rated AA+. This follows downgrades by S&P in 2011 and Fitch in...