Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence:
Dave: The first half of 2022 mostly driven by Fed hikes, but 2nd half looks like an earnings story…
Data as of 08.30.22
Joseph: Small-caps are already pricing a recession but large caps are richly priced even w/o estimate cuts
Data as of 08.30.2022
JL: Volatility as measured by VIX has been awfully tame in 2022
Data as of 08.30.22
Dave: …as we head into the historically weakest month of the year
Data as of 08.31.2022
Beckham: The floating rate market could become a key area of trouble
Source: Bianco as of 08.31.2022
JL: In a year that’s already by far the worst for bondholders since the inception of the Bond Aggregate Index
Data as of 09.01.22
Dave: Retail gas prices continue to fall, and the fall in wholesale prices leaves the potential for continued declines
Source: Strategas as of 09.01.2022
Joseph: While crack spreads have round-tripped the entire spike in profit margins
Data as of 09.01.22
JL: Monetary policy alone cannot tame inflation when fiscal spending remains overly accommodative
Source: Kansas City Fed as of 08.19.2022
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Created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), the Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index that represents the market’s expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Derived from the price inputs of the S&P 500 index options, it provides a measure of market risk and investors’ sentiments.
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