Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence:
John Luke: “Unprecedented” has been the word of the year in markets, pushing for another here as we reach 12 straight weeks of rising yields
JD: and with the persistence of the rising yields across the curve
Source: Strategas as of 10.20.2022
John Luke: economists are still hesitant to extrapolate continued rate rises
Data: Strategas as of 10.19.2022
Beckham: and Wall Street strategists continue to default to their “Today plus 8-12%” methodology
Source: Bloomberg as of 10.19.2022
Brad: Earnings estimates are finally starting to come down
Source: Strategas as of 10.14.2022
Brad: and the proportion of non-earners remains high but well off the craziness of 2020-21
Source: Strategas as of 10.18.2022
Dave: The world is split b/w those with low-rate mortgages and those without
Source: Raymond James as of 10.20.2022
John Luke: and prices are still substantially higher than just a few years ago
Source: Piper Sandler as of 10.19.2022
John Luke: Remember negative-yielding debt? How was that a thing?
Source: Strategas as of 10.19.2022
John Luke: Short-term Treasuries are finally providing real competition to the “There is No Alternative” regime
Source: Pavilion as of 10.19.2022
John Luke: and it’s showing up with assets flooding into money-market funds
Data as of 10.19.2022
John Luke: What is worrying markets right now is the stickiness of services inflation
Data as of 10.19.2022
Joseph: and what happens when our lack of supply emerges as a renewed trend higher in energy prices?
Data as of 10.14.2022
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