Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence:
John Luke: Fastest monetary tightening in decades
Source: Bianco as of 10.25.2022
John Luke: and the terminal rate keeps lifting
Source: Bianco as of 10.21.2022
Dave: Consumer spending has recovered, though with nominal spending now way ahead of trend
Source: PSC as of 10.27.2022
Beckham: but builders are immediately responding to the higher rates
Source: BlackRock as of 10.25.2022
Mark: Reactions to earnings have been all over the board
Data as of 10.27.2022
Brad: with energy and tech at opposite ends of the spectrum
Source: Bloomberg data from Strategas as of 10.28.22
Dave: Markets have often fared poorly into midterms and better coming out
Source: Piper Sandler
Dave: and actual economic downturns in Year 3 of a Presidential cycle have totaled exactly zero in the past 60 years
Source: Piper Sandler as of 10.19.2022
John Luke: Just a wild chart, a different “Zero” as it relates to China…zero return in 30 years
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