Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Dave: As everyone knows, a tiny group of megacap tech carried stocks on their back into early June
Source: Strategas as of 06.02.2023
Beckham: with a massive performance disparity between the top few names and the rest
Source: WSJ as of 06.07.2023
Dave: but could the divergence just get worked off through a broader advance, vs. a major S&P decline?
Source: Mizuho as of 06.08.2023
Joseph: The rate hiking cycle since early 2022 has seen pockets of performance differences
Source: Bespoke as of 06.02.2023
Brad: but it’s in lower volatility environments where we’ve historically seen even larger disparities
Source: Strategas as of 06.06.2023
John Luke: Money has been flying into the safest areas of markets
Source: BlackRock as of April 2023
Derek: which may set up some conflicts if investors get confident enough to start shoveling that money back into stocks
Data as of April 2023
Brad: S&P 500 valuations aren’t overly inspiring from an index level of 4300
Source: Sevens Report as of 06.05.2023
Dave: particularly if Morgan Stanley’s concerns about earnings come through
Data as of 06.05.2023
John Luke: fortunately, excessive valuations are mostly tied up in the tech sector, with the rest of the market historically reasonable
Source: Barclays as of 06.07.2023
Dave: with a contrast even from large cap tech vs. small cap tech
Source: BofA as of 06.02.2023
John Luke: It’s our job to continue taking note of the economic warnings being signaled by the yield curve
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of NY as of 06.05.2023
John Luke: but also note that markets are moving away from their rate cut expectations and towards the Fed’s view
Source: Bianco as of 06.06.2023
Dave: 20% is an arbitrary marker but If this bear market is truly over, it falls about in the middle of average length and drawdown
Data as of 06.08.2023
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