Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Brad: If you don’t recall this kind of volatility in the rate market, well…it’s been awhile
Source: Strategas as of 08.01.2023
John Luke: and the correlation with stocks is whipping around as well
Source: Bloomberg as of 08.02.2023
John Luke: the big question is, are we moving out of the stock/bond correlation regime that persisted for 25 years
Source: Bianco as of July 2023
John Luke: The history of inflation spikes doesn’t provide evidence of the inflation going away and staying away
Data as of July 2023
John Luke: and at least as far as interest expenses go, the federal government is facing its own rising prices
Data as of July 2023
John Luke: Credit spreads are staying tight but banks are getting tougher on loans
Source: Bianco as of July 2023
John Luke: and among larger publicly-traded companies, some sectors are benefiting from the rise in rates while others suffer
Source: Strategas as of 08.01.2023
Derek: though no one has benefitted more than pre-2022 mortgage holders, locking in low long-term rates and picking up higher short-term savings rates
Dave: Earnings beats haven’t had great reactions this quarter
Dave: yet misses have
Source: Goldman Sachs as of 08.01.2023
Joseph: with leading groups like Tech and Communications the biggest “victims” into high expectations
Source: Bespoke as of 08.02.2023
John Luke: The current labor supply quandary in a nutshell
Source: Strategas as of 08.01.2023
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