Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
John Luke: This week was mostly about inflation, with CPI Supercore running hot
Source: MKM as of 04.10.2024
Brian: with auto insurance becoming a larger and more painful component
Source: Bloomberg as of 04.11.2024
Joseph: and services as a whole staying stubbornly high after receding from peak year-over-year rates
Data as of 04.10.2024
Brett: the story is the same in Europe
Data as of 04.10.2024
Beckham: Manufacturing is becoming a differentiator for the U.S. vs. the European Union
Data as of March 2024
Dave: which is showing up in a stable, positive jobs picture in the U.S.
Data as of 04.05.2024
Joseph: and as long as people have jobs, they’re going to spend money and keep the economy growing
Source: JP Morgan as of March 2024
Brad: The timing of FOMC rate cuts continues to get pushed out, as we remain in a “pause”
Data as of 04.10.2024
John Luke: with a slow, quiet bleed in quantitative tightening continuing
Data as of 04.10.2024
JD: and the U.S. government debt burden just piles up
Source: Jefferies as of March 2024
Beckham: The area of the market that’s been most tied to the movements in rates has been Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Data as of 04.09.2024
Beckham: with the same pattern happening in European REITs
Data as of 04.09.2024
Joseph: and what is now 25+ years of no price appreciation in U.S. office REIT stocks
Data as of 04.10.2024
Brett: We’ve entered a blackout window preventing a high % of U.S. companies from buying back stock during earnings season
Data as of 04.05.2024
John Luke: at a time when U.S. stocks are getting a bit wobbly after a steady 5-month uptrend
Source: Strategas as of 04.10.2024
Dave: Hopefully, after a long period in which the S&P 500 has dominated earnings
Source: Meketa as of January 2024
Dave: we may be closer to a broadening of growth rates across more industries and geographies
John Luke: While sentiment after the rally may have become a bit too giddy
Data as of 04.05.2024
Brian: we seem to have the general support of a shrunken supply of stocks to soak up investor cash
Data as of 04.08.2024
Disclosures
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.
Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.
This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.
Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2404-23.
