Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
John Luke: Like savers vs. borrowers, there is a huge split right now between services and goods inflation
Data as of 04.21.2024
Beckham: and the stickiness of services inflation is what’s keeping the FOMC in this long “pause” mode
Source: Apollo as of 04.19.2024
John Luke: historically speaking, stocks can continue to perform in an inflationary environment as long as the economy holds up
Source: Ned Davis Research as of 04.12.2024
Brett: On the other end of the spectrum, bonds have been unable to sustain a bounce in this higher-inflation regime
Source: Fidelity as of 04.14.2024
Dave: with some fixed-income ETFs producing nearly the same volatility as supposedly “riskier” stocks
Source: Strategas as of 04.22.2024
Joseph: and the bond bear market extending into easily the worst environment since the inception of the aggregate bond index
Source: Strategas as of 04.22.2024
John Luke: One key driver of sticky inflation is tight labor supply
Source: BCA Research as of March 2024
Brad: and as anyone who flies can confirm, airport activity is back to its highs after the COVID-induced slump
Source: @staunovo as of March 2024
John Luke: The split between savers and borrowers is quite pronounced in major US corporations, leading to REDUCED interest expense despite higher rates
Data as of March 2024
Beckham: with similar activity on the personal side, it’s been a long time since banks have seen the interest margins they’d like
Data as of March 2024
John Luke: but on the other end of things, the government can’t issue debt fast enough and the public is poised to be the big buyers
Source: CBO as of March 2024
Dave: Q1 earnings are underway, with modest gains expected
Source: Goldman Sachs as of 04.19.2024
Brad: with larger growth expected as we get into Q2
Source: DataTrek as of 04.22.2024
Brian: and on a long-term basis, the continuation of a healthy long-term trend
Source: Apollo as of 04.22.2024
John Luke: Despite talk of converting our economy to “clean” energy, US oil production has never been higher
Data as of March 2024
Joseph: making us less and less dependent on foreign countries for our energy supply
John Luke: Another interesting trend that requires looking globally, wage growth and higher-end labor has been mostly a US experience in recent years
Brian: We hear a lot about the Mag 7 but this has truly been a historic divergence between cap-weighted US Large Caps and their equal-weighted equivalent
Source: Paulsen Perspectives as of 04.19.2024
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