Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Beckham: Inflation has made it back to the general range accepted by most central bankers
Data as of November 2024
John Luke: though long-term and short-term rates have significantly diverged since the FOMC decided to start cutting rates
Source: Strategas as of 12.20.2024
John Luke: and consumer outlooks for inflation are far from settled
Data as of 12.23.2024
Brett: There’s always something for investors to fear, though it changes over time and is usually not the resulting market catalyst (see 2023 “hard landing”
Data as of 12.17.2024
Joseph: and market “rules” often break (see inverted yield curve -> hard landing)
Brett: Popularly quoted indicators are often not only wrong but often based on stories not data
Brad: and the supposedly tight connection between the Fed balance sheet and equity performance
John Luke: Contrary to popular belief, big up years for stocks (like 2023/2024) occur more often than even small down years
Brian: shown another way, many miss the (positive) right tails by worrying too much about the (negative) left tails
Arch: But here we are, with strategists regularly taking the safe formula of (Current price + 5 to 10%)
Data as of November 2024
JD: and after last year’s overly conservative outlooks, they’re ratcheting back to the old formula
Brad: Emerging markets have been the ugly duckling of portfolios in recent years
Brad: Emerging markets have been the ugly duckling of portfolios in recent years
Dave: and like most equity diversifiers, completely stomped by the superior profitability of megacap US tech companies
Brad: The handful of stocks that change lives are much more obvious in the rearview mirror than they were through the windshield
Data as of November 2024
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