The Market in Pictures, April 4

by | Apr 4, 2025 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from the equity market correction to the economy and inflation and, of course, tariffs. Enjoy!

 

Beckham: Anyone who claims a crystal ball to future outcomes is either naïve or lying; corrections may rhyme, but they rarely repeat

 

 

 

Brett: and if you hone in on just the history after the 10% threshold has been reached, it’s even more clear how different the path of each outcome can be

 

 

 

Arch: Not only are the end points different in price, but they vary quite a bit in time as well

 

Data as of 04.01.2025

 

 

John Luke: and with policy uncertainty readings already on par with the most memorable episodes in recent history, it’s important to remember that widespread anxiety often sets the table for higher prices

 

Source: Strategas as of 04.02.2025

 

 

John Luke: Tariffs are obviously grabbing every headline, here’s a summary of pros and cons from Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio

 

Source: @AllioCapital as of 04.02.2025

 

 

John Luke: and an estimate of the initially proposed tariff rates relative to US trade history

 

Data as of 04.03.2025

 

 

Joseph: Here is a decent summary of the before and after tariff rates across the largest exporters to the U.S.

 

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 04.03.2025

 

 

Ten: It’s important to note that the proposed tariffs apply only to imported goods, not services

 

Data as of March 2025

 

 

John Luke: that split between goods and services is also prominent in tracking inflation figures

 

Source: WSJ as of 04.01.2025

 

 

Jake: Moving to jobs, we’ve seen large DOGE-driven cuts, but it’s not yet spilled over into the private sector

 

Source: Koyfin via Daily Chartbook as of 04.01.2025

 

 

Brad: and while market lore says credit markets always sniff out trouble before equities, it’s not always the case

 

 

 

Brian: We can’t guess at the full range of policy goals, but Treasury Secretary Bessent was clear on his desire for lower rates, oil prices, and US dollar

 

Data as of 04.03.2025

 

 

JD: and as markets fall we’ll soon find out whether the “Fed Put” is still a thing

 

 

 

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

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