Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. This week’s charts center on a violent rotation beneath a calm surface: semis selling off hard, AI winners giving back gains, and the 1st half’s laggards taking the lead, all while the average stock quietly makes new highs. The backdrop still cooperates, with earnings accelerating and labor costs and energy keeping inflation quiet, even as global yields grind higher. Have a great weekend!
Derek: July flipped the leaderboard as the 100 best-performing stocks of the 1st half are down an average of 13.2% this month, while the worst-performing are broadly catching a bid.
Source: Bespoke as of 7.19.26
Mark: Strip the AI enablers out of the S&P 500 and the index is up just 2.5% since March as the AI winners basket is up 31.7%, though the gap has narrowed materially in recent weeks.
Source: Bianco Research, Bloomberg as of 7.20.26
Joseph: A violent deleveraging under the surface, as the SOX Index (officially known as the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index) dropped 20% in 18 sessions and was on pace to trail the S&P 500 by its worst monthly margin since 2000, while the average stock in the S&P 500 hit an all-time high last Friday.
Source: Citadel Securities as of 7.19.26
Brett: Thematic ETFs have never been more popular and usually sound great until you own them. The median thematic ETF has delivered a 0.59 Sharpe ratio over the last 3 years with 23% volatility, a much lower Sharpe and much higher volatility than just owning the S&P 500.
Source: Baird Strategas, Bloomberg, ETF Action as of 7.20.26
Brad: Hyperscaler capex is demand-backed and self-funded from operating cash flow.
Data as of 07.19.2026
Beckham: Earnings keep doing the heavy lifting with Q2 2026 growth estimates climbing all year and now sitting at 25.6%, with the forward quarters being revised higher too.
Source: Bianco Research, Bloomberg as of 7.19.26
Dave: Crude in the $60s had kept the national average near $3 a gallon this summer, doing its part to keep headline inflation quiet so far this summer. We’ll see how continued conflict with Iran impacts the rest of the summer.
Source: Bianco Research, Bloomberg as of July 2026
John Luke: The U.K. now pays the most in the G7 to borrow for 10 years, with the U.S. close behind. Japan still anchors the bottom, but nobody borrows for free anymore.
Source: Baird Strategas as of 7.16.26
Ten: Focusing on the US, the 30-year Treasury yield has now been above 5% for the longest streak in almost 20 years.
Source: Baird Strategas as of 7.22.26
Jake: Shorter-term bonds show similar strain with two-year yields ~55 bps above the Fed Funds rate, suggesting bond investors expect tighter monetary policy as inflation remains elevated.
Source: Day Hagan as of 7.21.26
JD: On the labor front, job quits typically lead wages, and quits keep pointing lower. Average hourly earnings growth is now down to 3.5% year-over-year, showing there is not significant inflation pressure coming from the labor market right now.
Source: Baird Strategas as of 7.21.26
Brian: This Visa report on wealth transfer points out that Gen X and Millennials have MORE real wealth than Boomers did at the same age, thanks to things like earlier access to 401Ks and lower investing costs. A definite narrative violation as compared to what you typically read.
Source: Visa Business and Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Board as of 7.1.26
John: The US has been having fewer and fewer recessions over time. This shows the percentage of time spent in a recession during the first 40 years of your life, based on birth month, from 1900 through 1986 (a 40-year-old right now).
Source: NBER, @OddStats as of 7.22.26
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