We are not here to push a political platform, so let’s put the 2020 election into perspective for the stock market. Here are some quick facts:
- Historically, if stocks are higher in the three-month period preceding the election, the incumbent party has won, and if stocks are lower, the opposition party has won.
- Since 1952, no party has retained the White House when there was either a 20% decline or a recession during an election year.
- When the economy is in a recession on Election Day, the incumbent party has lost 80% of the time versus 32% when the economy was in expansion.
- President Trump sported a 38% approval rating. No president has been reelected with an approval rating that low at the end of June.
In a nutshell, history has not been kind to presidents facing economies and stock markets like 2020. The question is whether voters blame President Trump.
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