The Market in Pictures, April 11

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from historic market movement to inflation and of course, tariffs. Enjoy!

Brad: High VIX has coincided with near-term weakness, but the benefit of improving chances for long-term upside once cleared

Brett: and a run of consecutive high VIX closes has occurred only in the wildest of markets, with chop continuing but room for upside

Source: @subutrade as of 04.08.2025

Beckham: While markets are digesting Wednesday’s huge move higher, history has shown those moves to be a potential precursor to continued strength

Brad: Historically, a 20% drawdown in the S&P 500 has been a generally good time to put money to work

Source: Raymond James as of 04.07.2025

Brad: with broad strength across stocks of all sizes and styles

Data as of 04.07.2025

Joseph: Pundits and strategists seem split on recession vs. no recession, but in general, a 20% drop in the S&P 500 has indicated material economic weakness

Data as of 04.08.2025

Brad: but if high-yield spreads are an indicator of economic strength or weakness, the evidence for a recession is not there yet

Brian: One of the more notable moves in the past week has been a complete loss of strength in the US dollar

Chart via WSJ as of 04.09.2025

Jake: and while the general trend of US Dollar leadership remains in place, it’s in a more tenuous spot than in recent years

Data as of 04.09.2025

John Luke: Bonds are providing very little support to equity investors hoping to diversify away from extreme outcomes

Dave: with bonds especially unhelpful after the tariff announcement

Chart via WSJ as of 04.09.2025

Dave: Government inflation headlines show a steady reduction in year-over-over price increases

Data as of 04.10.2025

JD: but when you look at the cumulative rise in the cost of the items we consume, you can see why protecting purchasing power is critical

Data as of 04.10.2025

Dave: Earnings season is here, with anxiety hopefully setting the table for the typical batch of positive surprises

Data as of 04.04.2025

John Luke: The greater question for earnings is, how much will the attempt at deficit reduction impact the amazing rise in corporate profit margins?

Source: Hussman Strategic Advisors as of 04.05.2025

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