The Market in Pictures, August 16

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Beckham: The sharp rise in daily volatility came after 18 months of extremely subdued movement in equity indices

Data as of 08.12.2024

John Luke: and the VIX spike and reversal was one for the record books, back to the median in only 7 days!

Data as of 08.13.2024

John Luke: While rates sit at restrictive levels vs. recent years

Brett: the expectation that the FOMC would immediately cut aggressively has been pared back on better economic data

Data as of 08.14.2024

Arch: Consumer inflation expectations have plummeted from the 2022 peak

Data as of 08.12.2024

Joseph: but corporations across sectors are still citing labor costs as a concern for their businesses

Source: Morgan Stanley as of 08.15.2024

Brad: What’s not coming up on earnings calls are mentions of concerns about a U.S. recession

Source:  as of 08.09.2024

Dave: even for smaller companies, who have seemed to benefit less from the economic tailwinds

Data as of 08.16.2024

Beckham: While consumer delinquencies might be creeping a bit higher

Data as of 08.07.2024

John Luke: the aggressive balance sheet work done by US corporations puts them in a uniquely strong position

Data as of July 2024

Joseph: and no sign yet of a falloff in large-scale projects

Data as of 08.12.2024

JD: so the soft landing expected by fund managers remains the most likely bet

Data as of 08.12.2024

Dave: The hoped-for broadening of earnings by the “493” hasn’t yet kicked in

Dave: and despite decent results, estimates for Q3 earnings are being pulled back in recent weeks

Source: Strategas as of 08.13.2024

Brett: that said, the overall trend remains solidly higher and a continuation will be key for market outcomes

Data as of 08.12.2024

John Luke: The mostly hotly debated area of the economy be housing, where homeowners have been reluctant to give up their historically cheap mortgages

Data as of July 2024

Brian: but investors have started to re-enter the market after a period of absence

Data as of 08.15.2024

Brian: Stock buybacks have been a reliable source of price support in recent decades

Source: S&P Global as of April 2024

Beckham: and the quarterly buyback window just happened to reopen as stocks fell under selling pressure in early August

Brad: If you’re ever concerned the Mag 7 will be the only way forward for stocks, remember the only constant for markets has been change

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