The Market in Pictures, August 23

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Dave: Overall job growth has been modest over the past year, likely somewhere between these two measurements

Source: Raymond James as of 08.22.2024

Brett: but actual job losses have remained tame versus recent history

Data as of 08.16.2024

Beckham: and wage growth is showing signs of recharging after seeing its growth rate fall from the peak

Data as of 08.19.2024

Joseph: The amount of money in the global economy is expanding again after a period of contraction

Data as of 08.18.2024

John Luke: at a time when the FOMC is about to begin a seemingly aggressive rate-cutting campaign

Source: Bloomberg as of 08.21.2024

Arch: U.S. consumers as a whole appear to have learned the lessons of high-expense borrowing

Data as of July 2024

Brad: but our federal government hasn’t applied the same discipline to its budget

Source: Raymond James as of 08.21.2024

Beckham: The recovery of the 10% correction in NASDAQ stocks was easily the fastest on record

Data as of 08.19.2024

Brett: coinciding with the largest VIX decline in history

Brad: Small business owners are seeing renewed optimism

Source: Apollo as of 08.19.2024

Dave: though that’s not yet translated into better earnings for publicly-traded smaller companies

Source: Raymond James as of 08.19.2024

Dave: And while we’re waiting for this earnings gap to narrow and even disappear

Source: Raymond James as of 08.19.2024

John Luke: it’s important to remember that when “large vs. small” cycles turn they can stick for awhile

John Luke: We’ve been fixated on inflation, let’s not forget that growth is what ultimately drives the price of risk assets

Source: Ned Davis as of 08.12.2024

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