The Market in Pictures, August 25

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

John Luke: It’s unusual for stocks to rally when real yields are screaming higher

Data as of August 2023

Dave: and it’s setting up a particularly extreme divergence in valuations of large, high-growth stocks

Source: Strategas as of 08.22.2023

John Luke: on top of that, term premiums in Treasuries are now reaching levels that have coincided with resistance for equity rallies

Source: Strategas as of 08.23.2023

Dave: 2023 equity inflows have been relatively muted given the large first-half rally

Source: Strategas as of 08.21.2023

Dave: yet the go-to ETF for long-duration Treasury bonds has seen significant inflows throughout its bear market

Source: Goldman Sachs

Dave: That bear market in bonds has been easily the longest of the “Agg Bond” era going back to the mid-1970s

Source: Strategas as of 08.23.2023

John Luke: the good news there is that bonds purchased today have significantly lower risk of price depreciation overcoming coupons

Data as of August 2023

Dave: and MAYBE the history of hiking cycles ending could remove the rate headwind faced by bondholders

Source: Strategas as of 08.23.2023

Dave: Credit card delinquencies are rising a bit, but only from very low levels to average levels

Source: Strategas as of 08.23.2023

Beckham: partly due to the good fortune of acquiring mortgages pre-2022

Source: Bloomberg as of 08.22.2023

Dave: buy also being more savvy in moving money from where it’s treated poorly (bank sweep) to where it’s treated better (money markets)

Source: Bianco as of 08.09.2023

Dave: Stagnant home prices may foreshadow falling rents in the months ahead

Source: Macrobond as of 08.21.2023

John Luke: but GDP forecasts are rising

Source: Bianco as of 08.18.2023

John Luke: and goods prices look ready to reclaim their spot as a drive of inflation

Source: Raymond James as of 08.23.2023

Dave: The world outside of a handful of megacap tech stocks carries much fairer valuations

Source: Raymond James as of 08.22.2023

Joseph: but it’s important to remember that over the long haul, better companies and economies generally receive higher valuations

Source: TS Lombard as of August 2023

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