The Market in Pictures, December 12

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from Mag 7 to the rest, FOMC plans and bond yields around the globe, to inflation expectations and the economy. Hope you have a great weekend!

John Luke: People obsess over Mag 7 concentration, but that’s generally how market leadership evolves in every region

Brett: and it’s not like it’s a single batch of companies sharing identical outcomes

John Luke: Strategist targets are coming out, with high single-digit % gains probably more tied to average returns than any special insight

Source: Strategas as of 12.08.2025

Matt: even though the “average” 8-10% return rarely happens

Jake: Market expectations for 2026 rate cuts are slightly ahead of the FOMC’s “Dot Plot”

Joseph: which is not unreasonable, as the overall balance of hawks vs. doves makes multi-year lows

Source: Bloomberg as of 12.10.2025

Beckham: Longer-term bond yields have been unusually resistant to following along with the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle

Source: Apollo as of 12.10.2025

John Luke: though the yield reaction to the 2025 cuts has been much milder than in 2024

Source: Strategas as of 12.10.2025

John Luke: either way, yields in the U.S. have been far better behaved than in the rest of the developed world

Data as of 12.10.2025

John Luke: Key to the Fed’s ability to cut rates is the continued restraint of market inflation expectations

Source: Strategas

John Luke: that said, it’s unlikely that the public will see any of the inflation data as a win, given the cumulative impact of rising prices

Data as of 12.08.2025

Brad: Consumer confidence may be low, but an actual recession doesn’t seem likely

Source: Strategas as of 12.11.2025

Brad: especially with the strength in corporate profits

Source: Macrobond as of 12.11.2025

Dave: and the administration would seem to have every incentive to run the economy at a strong pace going into the midterms

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 12.09.2025

Dave: Against pundit calls of an overvalued market, it’s actually been real earnings driving stocks higher

Brian: with only energy failing to deliver positive earnings in 2025

Data as of 12.08.2025

Brad: International stocks have had a great year, though not quite as earnings-driven as US stocks

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 12.11.2025

John: and regardless of short-term market performance, the US is where global investors want to be

Source: ISG as of 12.11.2025

Disclosures

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