The Market in Pictures, December 22

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Dave: With the absurd dominance of the megacap names having retreated to merely “dominant”, we hope to retire this type of graphic

Source: Strategas as of 12.19.2023

Brian: but not before we share one more crazy point of reference

Via Twitter @NateGeraci as of Dec 2023

Dave: The annual S&P 500 reconstitution of the value and growth indexes is pretty funny, with the Growth and Value basically swapping 10% of Healthcare for Tech

Source: Aptus via Bloomberg 12.13.2023

Beckham: with tech trading at a significant premium to other sectors

Source: Bernstein as of 12.18.2023

Brad: and a pretty vivid image of 2023’s obsession with AI and expected winners/losers of Ozempic

Source: Bernstein as of 12.22.2023

John Luke: Strategist forecasts for 2024 are out

Data as of 12.15.2023

Dave: which makes it a good time to look back at the most common 2023 view from a year ago

Source: Goldman Sachs as of Dec 2022

John Luke: Sarcasm aside, inverted yield curves have eventually led to recessions in the past

Source: Bianco as of 12.19.2023

John Luke: and stock market rallies after inversions have given back their gains

Source: MKM Partners as of 12.15.2023

John Luke: but what’s been consistently underestimated by forecasters has been the amount of stimulus still in the system

Data as of November 2023

Brett: Market valuations have been the primary force behind the movements of the past few years

Source: Goldman as of December 2023

Dave: but the ability of corporate earnings to consistently grow earnings has been seen across all company sizes

Source: Raymond James as of 12.22.2023

Joseph: We’re in a historically strong period for small-cap stocks relative to large-caps

Source: Sentimentrader as of 12.15.2023

Dave: which may end up coinciding with a historically weak period for large-caps in election years

Source: Strategas as of December 2023

Dave: which has been amplified in years when an incumbent faces challenges

Source: Strategas as of December 2023

JD: Forecasts aside, it’s important to look through short-term noise and remember that most stock market “tails” are on the good side!

Source: Strategas as of December 2023

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