The Market In Pictures, December 26

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from a good run to playing catch-up, strong earnings to fun with strategist targets, and the balance between jobs and inflation that the Fed will need to play in 2026.

Enjoy your extended Christmas weekend!

Jake: It’s been a great run for stocks since the tariff tantrum

Data as of 12.21.2025

Brett: but an ongoing challenge for stock-pickers

Graphic via Bloomberg as of 12.22.2025

Joseph: with hope that this attempt at broadening will be the one that sticks

Data as of 12.22.2025

John: Despite media fears of a tech “bubble”, the entirety of this year’s rise in stocks has been driven by actual earnings growth

Source: Duality Research as of 12.22.2025

Ten: with strong profit margins a driving force of the strong earnings performance

Data as of 12.22.2025

John Luke: as companies are doing more with less, with the help of technology

Data as of 12.22.2025

John Luke: Strategist targets for 2026 are out, and as usual, not very provocative

Data as of 12.19.2025

John Luke: with even tighter clustering than normal

Source: Bloomberg as of 12.22.2025

JD: and if you want a good picture of what drives strategist targets, this year’s path shows you how useless they are for improving portfolio outcomes

Data as of 12.23.2025

Brian: Consumption continues to be the rock of the US economy

Data as of 12.23.2025

John Luke: and on the corporate side, credit seems to be picking up again after a lull

Graphic via Goldman Sachs as of 12.22.2025

John Luke: and perhaps even government finances are improving, with market gains resulting in higher tax receipts ahead

Source: Strategas as of 12.23.2025

Beckham: Lack of employment growth may be holding back the economy a bit, but the red dots below show a very mild constraint

Source: Piper Sandler as of 12.19.2025

Joseph: with low housing activity a more obvious contributor to overall growth

Data as of 12.24.2025

John Luke: a condition that could heavily benefit from lower mortgage rates

John Luke: One benefit of housing restraint is the helpful impact on inflation levels

Source: Strategas as of 12.23.2025

Dave: leaving services as the primary source of remaining inflation

Data as of 12.23.2025

Brad: and general inflation expectations have been incredibly stable since the 2022 surge and retracement (as measured by the US Breakeven 10 Year Treasury Index)

Source: Bloomberg as of 12.22.2025

John Luke: The quantitative tightening (QT) of the past couple of years may have taken the Fed’s balance sheet about as low as we can expect to see

Graphic via Lyn Alden as of 12.22.2025

Disclosures

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. 

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially. 

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