The Market in Pictures, December 29

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Joseph: Like last year, Wall Street strategist targets are quite conservative for 2024

Brett: and in the past few years they just seem to tag along with wherever prices currently stand

Source: @WarrenPies as of 12.27.2023

Beckham: confirmed by the wider population of active investment managers who seem to also just follow price

Source: National Association of Active Investment Managers as of 12.27.2023

Joseph: In just a few weeks, the huge discount for small-cap equity valuations has shrunk to almost normal levels

Source: Raymond James as of 12.27.2023

Dave: but the impact of this volatility is a major drag on compounded returns

John Luke: Rate cut expectations for 2024 seem to have raced far ahead of reality

Data as of 12.27.2023

Dave: especially without a decent spike in unemployment

Source: Strategas as of 12.26.2023

John Luke: and while rate cuts seem fun, history says that eventually market volatility makes a comeback

Source: The Market Ear as of 12.26.2023

John Luke: Yield curve inversions have historically been a reliable precursor to recessions, and this is no quick inversion

Dave: but don’t sleep on the price of oil as a distinguishing factor for recessions vs. soft landings

Source: Raymond James as of 12.27.2023

Dave: Small banks have been particularly weak performers this year

Source: Bianco as of 12.26.2023

Brad: and would seem to be a large distinction between those lending for single-family

Data as of December 2023

Brad: versus multi-family

Data as of December 2023

Brian: History will not look kindly on entities that locked in decades of negative real yields for their “safe” money

Source: Aptus as of December 2023

JD: It’s never a bad time for a reminder that clients will always have an excuse to bail but the best plan is the one they can stick with

Data as of December 2023

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