The Market in Pictures, February 16

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Dave: The typical pattern for earnings estimates is to start high and fade throughout the year

Source: Piper Sandler as of 02.16.2024

Brad: but so far in 2024, sales have generally been above estimates, and earnings even more above

Data as of 02.13.2024

Dave: especially for small caps

Data as of 02.12.2024

Brett: so maybe this will be the year that broader market earnings catch up to the megacap names

Data as of 02.12.2024

Brian: Megacap dominance was not a thing for most of the past 70 years

Data via GMO as of Jan 2024

Dave: and you can clearly say the “average” stock hasn’t done much since rate hikes began in March 2022

Source: Piper Sandler as of 02.12.2024

Joseph: Fed watchers have extended dates for the expected rate cut cycle

Source: CME as of 02.15.2024

John Luke: though markets are still ahead of where the actual policy-makers seem to be

Data as of 02.13.2024

Dave: as the level of inflation measured by monthly CPI has generally come down from the highs of 2022

Data as of 02.13.2024

Dave: it’s the flattening of the disinflationary move that has markets revisiting those expectations

Source: Raymond James as of 02.14.2024

Dave: Goods reflect a far heavier piece of the S&P 500 than they do in the service-heavy US economy

Data as of Jan 2024

Dave: No surprise but money is following the hottest sector of the market

Source: Strategas as of February 2024

Beckham: We know shelter has been sticky in the inflation measures, with investors continuing to own more of the market than in the past

Data as of January 2024

Beckham: with investors gradually crowding individuals out of the starter home market

Data as of January 2024

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