The Market in Pictures, February 21

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are contributing to investor activity, from earnings to tariffs to market breadth and comparisons of foreign markets to ours. Enjoy!

Beckham: It’s not just megcap tech that’s seeing profit margins on the rise

Via @SamRo as of 02.15.2025

Brad: resulting in solid earnings on only slightly higher sales growth

Data as of 02.17.2025

Dave: Megacap tech earnings comprise a huge chunk of overall S&P 500 earnings, but an even bigger chunk of market capitalization

Source: Strategas as of 02.21.2025

Joseph: and moving to equal-weighted earnings, the trend hasn’t been great

Data as of 02.18.2025

Brett: Maybe the earnings dominance vs. smaller stocks will finally shrink as 2025 unfolds

John Luke: as outcomes turn a bit more company-specific

Data as of January 2025

Brad: Wherever tariffs land, they’re coming from historically low levels

Data as of January 2025

Arch: and will make up a tiny fraction of the overall economy

Source: Apollo as of 02.20.2025

Beckham: Housing’s struggles are not surprising given the sharp rise in rates relative to income growth

Data as of 02.15.2025

John Luke: but manufacturing is seeing new signs of resurgence

Data as of 02.14.2024

Joseph: and quantitative tightening (QT) might be looking at a break, as monetary policy levers shift

Source: Strategas as of 02.15.2025

John Luke: Explosive earnings growth is hard for companies to sustain

Source: Goldman Sachs as of January 2025

Brian: unlike the concern that US stocks are overvalued vs. peers, which has persisted throughout the past 10 years

Data as of 02.14.2025

JD: It wasn’t expected by many at the time, but holding stocks from the exact pre-COVID peak has worked out just fine for investors

Via Raymond James as of 02.18.2025

Arch: and when you include returns vs. volatility, S&P 500 performance has been even more impressive

Dave: The business fundamentals of US companies paint a strong case for the dominance of US stocks over every major asset class

Source: Strategas as of 02.17.2025

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