The Market in Pictures, February 9

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

John Luke: Market expectations for 2024 interest rate cuts are slowly moving back towards FOMC guidance

Data as of 02.05.2024

John Luke: as the underlying economy is producing data indicating that the inflation battle is still underway

Source: Bloomberg as of 02.05.2024

Dave: and long bonds are suffering as a result, relative to historical post-hiking cycle performance

Source: Strategas as of 02.04.2024

John Luke: Large growth continues to dominate

Source: Morningstar as of 02.05.2024

Brad: but one of the “Mag 7” is losing its place

Source: Strategas as of 02.06.2023

Brian: which is something that has often occurred in the following year for the largest market-cap companies

Source: GMO as of Jan 2024

Dave: and looking out a few quarters shows the possibility of some serious earnings gains for smaller companies

Source: Strategas as of 02.07.2023

Beckham: It’s not a surprise to see how far ahead tech is, at the expense of all other sectors

Source: Grindstone Intelligence

John Luke: but now prices for technology stocks have raced far ahead of their own earnings

Joseph: while the neglected energy companies shovel cash flow into buybacks and dividends

Data as of January 2024

 Dave: Earnings estimates are bumping slightly off of the bottom

Data as of 01.31.2024

Brad: as the trickle of reports turns into a flood, and shows better growth than expected a month ago

Data as of 02.02.2024

Brian: Confidence among corporate executives is moving nicely higher from multi-year lows

Data as of 02.08.2024

Beckham: as inflation worries fade but equally important, the general level of interest expense among corporations

Data as of January 2024

Joseph: Everyone knows most foreign markets have significantly lagged the U.S., but this pic shows an interest set of dynamics

Source: Raymond James as of 02.09.2024

Brett: Regular reminder, ETFs operate with a different (better!) tax structure than mutual funds

Via @nategeraci

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