The Market in Pictures, January 19

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

John Luke: It’s no secret that central banks plan to cut rates this year

Data as of 01.12.2024

John Luke: and US markets are way out in front of the FOMC in anticipating how many cuts can come in 2024

Data as of 01.17.2024

Beckham: We’re getting into the time window when unemployment has historically risen following a rate hike cycle

Source: Piper Jaffray as of 01.15.2024

Brian: but there’s been no sign of sustained weakness in the job market

Source: Daily Chartbook as of 01.18.2024

Dave: On top of that, the general trend in business activity is still well above its pre-COVID trendline

Source: Piper Jaffray as of 01.15.2024

John Luke: and credit spreads are still signaling zero trouble in the economy

Source: Daily Chartbook as of 01.18.2024

Brad: High beta stocks have really lagged in the early days of 2024

Data as of 01.16.2024

Brad: but smaller stocks have often done well following periods of poor market breadth, with 2023 one of the most pronounced divergences

Data as of December 2023

John Luke: and while it’s yet to stick in this decade, small caps have been very reliable in keeping up with inflation

Source: Strategas as of December 2023

Joseph: Besides small vs. large, there’s been a clearly diverging path between growth and value these past two years

Dave: and on balance, value stocks have historically held an edge in election years such as 2024

Data as of December 2023

Brett: The US continues to grow in its domination over global investment benchmarks

Source: Longtermtrends as of 01.16.2024

Brian: partly a result of our consistent edge in growth vs. most developed regions

Source: Apollo as of 01.12.2024

Mark: It’s wild to see forecasters multiply earnings by a P/E ratio to guess where stocks are fairly valued, the range of outcomes is just so wide

Data as of December 2023

Brett: which is why we place zero value on where Wall Street “strategists” estimate future targets for stock prices

Data as of 12.29.2023

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