The Market in Pictures, July 12

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

John Luke: Maybe, just maybe, the near-term inflation concerns can be reduced

Source: Strategas as of 07.11.2024

John Luke: which could free the Fed to relax what has now become a slightly restrictive policy stance

Data as of 07.07.2024

John Luke: The latest inflation report triggered a historic rotation from recent growth winners to value laggards, on hopes rate cuts can come sooner vs. later

Source: Data as of 07.11.2024

Brad: an outcome long-awaited for those waiting on mean reversion

Data as of 07.10.2024

Dave: The chart below was pre-rotation day, but shows how much room remains for the small-cap reversion opportunity

Source: Strategas as of 07.09.2024

Beckham: also just before the big rotation, but clearly a historically high number of stocks that have room to play catch-up to the big kahuna S&P 500

Source: Apollo as of 07.11.2024

John Luke: But the catalysts are there for broadening participation, at least on a valuation basis

Source: Alpine Macro as of 07.08.2024

Dave: and in particular, huge performance dispersion between tech stocks and most everything else

Source: Bernstein as of 07.08.2024

Joseph: but even within technology, there are a number of companies whose stocks haven’t attracted the same enthusiasm of the most favored names

Data as of 07.03.2024

Dave: and on a fundamental basis, there is a case to be made that the broader market is about to close the earnings gap on the recently dominant Mag 5 or whatever you want to call them

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 07.03.2024

Dave: In general, the progression of earnings estimates is holding up nicely

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 06.24.2024

Brett: a good sign, coming out of an earnings trough

Arch: and good first halves for stocks have generally led to average or better second halves

Brad: An interesting distinction between the U.S. and other developed countries is our preference for fixed-rate mortgages

Data as of June 2024

John Luke: which has helped make U.S. homeowners pretty immune to the rise in rates

Data as of June 2024

John Luke: Important to remember, forward yields are very tied to current yields. But lack the opportunity for growth!

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