The Market in Pictures, July 21

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Beckham: The YTD rally in the S&P 500 has all been due to P/E multiples rising

Source: Strategas as of 07.16.2023

JD: but that hasn’t stopped Wall Street strategists from lifting targets as price runs away from them

Data as of 07.20.2023

John Luke: though it’s taking some time for investors to look away from parking in cash

Data as of 07.14.2023

John Luke: Soft landing remains the expectation among global fund managers

Data as of 07.17.2023

Dave: with Goldman more optimistic than consensus and again lowering their odds of a recession

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 07.14.2023

Brad: as some indicators firm up but others firmly pointed at a sharper slowdown

Source: Strategas as of 07.18.2023

Joseph: Housing a topic of much discussion but prices generally stabilizing after some weakness

Data as of 07.16.2023

Beckham: as hopeful buyers wait for owners to give up their cheap mortgages

Data as of June 2023

Brad: but long-term, just like commercial real estate it’s probably all about desirability of location

John Luke: A fall from above 9% to near 3% in US CPI would rank among the largest drops in modern history

Source: BofA as of 07.17.2023

John Luke: as nearly all components of the inflation measures have fallen

Data as of 07.17.2023

John Luke: but a structural shortage of workers will likely present a challenge to reaching the Fed’s stated 2% target for inflation

Data as of 07.14.2023

 Beckham: Big swings in rates have led to big swings in net income for S&P companies, historically

Data as of 07.17.2023

 Brad: and right now, forecasts for energy and materials companies seem to be expecting the worst of it

Source: Raymond James as of 07.14.2023

Derek: though maybe that can set a tone for positive earnings surprises, a key factor in recent market recoveries

Data as of 07.14.2023

Dave: I think we can all agree a continuation of this trend would be in our best interest

Source: Strategas as of 07.17.2023

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