The Market in Pictures, July 3

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from low quality and high quality stocks to the state of the US consumer, and projections for rates and the relentless appetite for US large cap stocks. Hope you have a Happy 4th of July!

Brad: It was a very strong 2^nd quarter, but especially strong for high beta stocks, as often happens after market drawdowns

Brett: with a clear dominance by retail names over institutional types

Beckham: Over longer time frames, companies that can afford to pay growing dividends have generally performed better

Beckham: with that advantage compounding dramatically over time

Joseph: The superior fundamentals of larger US companies really show up when you take long-term snaphots

Data as of March 2025

Ten: and it also shows up in performance, as small caps struggle in a runaway bull for larger cap indices

Source: Bloomberg as of 06.30.2025

John Luke: In contrast to our federal government, the aggregate US consumer ledger is in great shape and continuing to improve

Dave: and the resulting spending has helped extend economic growth whenever conditions appear a bit wobbly

Source: Raymond James as of June 2025

Arch: The setters of short-term rates are more worried about inflation than deflation

Source: Apollo as of 07.01.2025

John Luke: but markets are confident they’ll come around to the idea of deeper rate cuts

Brian: The US Dollar has pulled back significantly this year, from its relentless move higher

Data as of 06.30.2025

John Luke: but the dominant role of US assets remains

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 06.30.2025

Jake: The month of July has treated investors well over the past decade, benefiting from a focus on corporate earnings

Source: Charlie Bilello as of 06.30.2025

Disclosures

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.

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