The Market in Pictures, July 7

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

John Luke: Mortgage rates are moving higher again

Source: YCharts

John Luke: but US buyers are in far different shape than in other parts of the world

Source: HT Logan Mohtashami as of June 2023

Beckham: The Yield Curve is the primary marker folks point to when talking about a coming recession

Data as of 07.05.2023

John Luke: but credit spreads don’t always give huge lead times from widening until recessions hit

Data as of June 2023

Brad: Consensus earnings have fallen steadily from last year’s high

Source: Strategas as of 07.03.2023

Derek: but it’s energy that has been responsible for the bulk of the decline in 2023

Data as of 07.03.2023

Brad: Expansion of price/earnings multiples has been the primary driver of this year’s equity gains

Source: Piper as of 07.03.2023

Beckham: which is resulting in a widening spread between earnings yield and real Treasury yields

Source: The Market Ear as of 07.03.2023

Dave: This year has been a resumption of the tough stretch for value stocks

Data as of 06.30.2023

Dave: and even tougher as you go down the size spectrum, as shown by equal-weight vs. cap-weight

Source: Strategas as of 06.30.2023

Dave: you can also see it in tech vs. non-tech

Data as of 06.30.2023

Joseph: On cue, retail investors started to get bullish after the market took off without them

Source: Bespoke as of 07.06.2023

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