The Market in Pictures, June 13

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from strategist chasing to inflation, earnings and the economy, to international comps and beautiful bills. Enjoy!

Brett: As is usually the case, Wall Street strategists seemingly anchor on current levels and add/subtract a made-up return number around it

Dave: setting up a comical collection of moving targets through volatile periods

Source: Strategas

Jake: While the general feeling seems to be that stocks are way up, actual returns aren’t showing extreme performance

Source: Bespoke as of 06.04.2025

John Luke: though the recent move from the lows has put itself in solid company

Dave: US consumer incomes are growing steadily, at a pace probably too high for the Fed to cut but too low to hike

Source: Raymond James as of 06.06.2025

Joseph: which is also a reasonable conclusion from the broad mix of inflation indicators

Data as of 06.11.2025

Brian: either way, the entirety of inflation in recent quarters has come from the services side

Data as of 06.11.2025

John Luke: Bonds as a whole remain a thorn in the side of allocators, providing little return and no correlation benefits

Arch: and the US Treasury has issued endless supply to cover federal spending, which probably won’t stop

Source: Apollo as of March 2025

John Luke: one bright spot is that the relative attractiveness of municipal bonds has risen

Source: Morgan Stanley

Brad: Consensus earnings estimates for 2026 have pulled back from prior expectations

Dave: and there’s a seemingly high bar to meet expectations for the 2nd half of this year

Source: Raymond James as of 06.06.2025

Dave: with that said, we’ll probably need to see a continued explosion in artificial intelligence (AI) spending

Source: Raymond James as of 06.06.2025

Beckham: Manufacturing sentiment in Europe is rising at a time of concern from US manufacturers

Data as of 06.02.2025

John Luke: but history has proven US businesses to be superior to businesses around the world

Data as of 06.06.2025

John Luke: Whatever comes out of the one, big, beautiful bill, it looks to be growth-positive in the near term. And (maybe) less growth-positive in the long term.

Data as of 06.06.2025

Disclosures

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