The Market in Pictures, June 14

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

John Luke: FOMC members have very little confidence in their inflation outlooks

Source: FOMC as of 06.12.2024

Beckham: but we know that the typical consumer is looking at the cumulative impact of the past few years, not what happens month-to-month

Source: TS Lombard as of 06.11.2024

Brad: thankfully, stocks have historically done well when inflation flattened out

Data as of 06.12.2024

John Luke: Armed with this week’s tame inflation data and dovish FOMC comments, markets have shifted rate forecasts lower for the year ahead

Source: CME FedWatch Tool

John Luke: landing on a consensus of a full percentage point of rate cuts by April of next year

Data as of 06.14.2024

Joseph: All it took was a slight fall in mortgage rates to see a huge bump in new applications

Source: Daily Chartbook as of 06.12.2024

Brian: which can hopefully confirm the recent fall in recession odds

Source: Apollo as of 06.07.2024

Dave: also being reinforced by comments from corporate CEOs

Data as of 06.07.2024

Brett: The broader market continues to lag what’s happening at the top end of market capitalization

Source: Barchart as of 06.13.2024

Arch: and we’re seeing a wide range of outcomes at the individual stock level

Data as of 06.10.2024

Dave: We continue to see performance dominance by the biggest of the big

Source: Strategas as of 06.10.2024

Dave: and not only a continuation but an actual acceleration

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 06.12.2024

Dave: that said, the dominance is not totally unjustified, as the largest companies are also delivering the best business performance

Source: Strategas as of 06.14.2024

Brad: and as a whole, the S&P 500 valuation increase has run parallel with high cash flow generation as asset-light models expand

Data as of May 2024

Brian: “T-Bill and Chill” sounds great until you see your purchasing power erode year after year!

Source: Aptus via Bloomberg

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