The Market in Pictures, June 30

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

John Luke: The cleanest story since the October low has been decelerating headline inflation, which lines up with the history of stocks and CPI

Source: The Market Ear June 2023

Dave: and while headline CPI has been way up and now way down, Core CPI has been stable at a high rate for 2 years now

 Data as of June 2023

John Luke: Rate expectations have been fully restored to their standing ahead of the March banking crisis

Source: Raymond James as of 06.28.2023

John Luke: as the idea of a July rate hike went completely away but is now commonly accepted again

Source: Bianco as of 06.29.2023

John Luke: Consensus earnings have flatlined awaiting direction, both in YOY change and in direction of estimates

Source: The Market Ear as of 06.26.2023

Dave: with a similarly mixed outlook in Europe

Source: Morgan Stanley as of 06.26.2023

Brad: High yield spreads remain tight despite calls for a recession

Source: Strategas as of 06.26.2023

Derek: perhaps due to more discriminating lending standards

Data as of June 2023

James: The broader market of stocks is still far short of typical rallies from bear market lows

Source: Investech as of 06.12.2023

Derek: but the bounce has been enough to finally pull a large number of bears from the sidelines

Source: Goldman Sachs as of June 2023

Brad: It’s important to remember that the stock market is not the economy, especially when thinking about large-cap multinationals

Source: Strategas as of June 2023

Dave: but pundits still spend the bulk of their time trying to match the two

Source: Sevens Report as of 06.26.2023

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