The Market in Pictures, March 15

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Brett: Equity valuations had been tied to interest rates in this cycle, but they’ve separated in recent weeks

Data as of 03.11.2024

Brad: perhaps tied to investor recognition that business performance is a more important driver of long-term performance

Data as of March 2024

Dave: As opposed to valuations, the market of late has been more focused on company earnings outlooks

Data as of 03.11.2024

Joseph: leading us into a market driven by a handful of stocks with persistent price movements

Source: Piper Sandler as of February 2023

Dave: and personified by popular artificial intelligence (AI) stocks like NVDA and SMCI

Source: Piper Sandler as of 03.11.2024

Beckham: Speaking of AI, the hope is that productivity can rise across the economy. Are we starting to see an impact?

Data as of February 2024

Brett: historically, stocks have been seen better performance in times of higher productivity

Source: Paulsen’s Perspectives as of 03.14.2024

John Luke: The FOMC will meet next week to discuss policy, with inflation and wages on their mind

Data as of February 2024

John Luke: while a handful of politicians will surely point to evil corporate profits as the source of inflation

Data as of February 2024

John Luke: Treasury yields are priced as relatively cheap vs. equity yields as they’ve been since the dot-com bust

Source: DoubleLine as of February 2024

John Luke: and the cushion from higher Treasury yields is certainly more helpful than it’s been in recent years

Data as of February 2024

Brian: that said, there seems to be little incentive for taking on credit risk at current pricing

Source: Aptus as of 03.13.2024

Brad: As regularly noted, small-cap stocks are trading at a significant discount to large-caps

Data as of 02.29.2024

Brad: and while small-cap growth stocks have closed the historic valuation discount

Data as of February 2024

Brad: small-cap value stocks continue to trade at a discount to their long-term average valuation

Data as of February 2024

Brian: Reminder that annual stock market returns not only have a bias to the upside, but that surviving left (down) tails to capture right (up) tails is a path to compounding wealth

Source: Aptus as of March 2024

Disclosures

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