The Market in Pictures, March 17

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Derek: Hopefully the first and last time we need to share SIVB charts, but in hindsight it stood out

Source: Bloomberg as of 03.11.2023

Dave: and banks can differ quite a bit on the % of deposits falling under FDIC thresholds

Data as of 03.11.2022

John Luke: The bond market equivalent of the VIX is the MOVE Index, and it’s been rising quickly

Source: Bloomberg as of 03.16.23

John Luke: as stress works its way into fixed income products that fund endless projects

Source: Bianco Research as of 03.13.23

John Luke: Markets have dramatically moved away from the targets discussed by the Fed in recent weeks

Source: Bloomberg as of 03.15.2023

John Luke: as seen in the historic moves in short-term rates over the past week

Data as of 03.15.2023

John Luke: and odds of a 25 bps hike at next week’s meeting have been all over the board but seemingly still on

Source: FedWatch as of 03.15.2023

Brad: While the mythical “No Landing” appears off the table, this sort of hiking cycle has been more common in hard landings not soft ones

Source: Piper as of 03.16.2023

John Luke: at a time when markets are quickly unwinding the massive yield curve inversion

Source: Strategas as of 03.16.2023

Brad: Good historical perspective on where we stand today vs. history, on inflation, yields, valuations, tax rates, and growth

Source: Strategas as of 03.13.2023

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