The Market in Pictures, May 10

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Brad: Earnings season is winding down, it’s been solid

Brad: and we’re approaching the expected inflection point where we see a larger show of strength across the full S&P 500

Brad: and eventually in 2025, into the small-cap universe

Source: Strategas as of 05.06.2024

Joseph: with profit margins again expanding after a hit in 2022

Source: Raymond James as of 05.09.2024

Beckham: Inflation is polling as the most impactful economic concern among consumers

Data as of April 2024

Brian: as the breadth of items experiencing price rises is settling into an area well above pre-COVID levels but well below the highs of summer 2022

John Luke: Services as a whole have been the most consistent, sticky driver of inflation in recent years

Data as of March 2024

Brett: putting the Fed in a bit of a pickle heading into the 2024 election

Source: Bloomberg as of 05.08.2024

John Luke: The performance spread between corporate bonds and government bonds is as wide as it’s been

Data as of January 2024

Dave: with credit spreads continuing to plunge lower

Source: Sandbox Daily as of 05.08.2024

John Luke: against a wide range of refinancing plans for US corporations depending on size and sector

Source: Piper Sandler as of 05.06.2024

John Luke: Interest expense for the US government is rising quickly from multi-decade lows

Source: Bianco as of 03.31.2024

Beckham: as the Treasury becomes a larger backstop to the economy

Data as of March 2024

John Luke: and the mix of Treasury buyers is evolving towards individual households and the funds they own

Data as of March 2024

Joseph: at a time when bonds are delivering less diversification to portfolios holding equities

Joseph: Stocks for the long run is a real thing, when comparing to historical returns vs. bonds and cash

Data as of January 2024

Joseph: and the same has been true in the UK despite the reduction in its importance relative to the global economy

Data as of January 2024

Brett: that said, the difference in central bank stimulus in the US vs. Europe has contributed to quite the difference in stock market outcomes

Data as of March 2024

Dave: Cheap + quality can be elusive but has been a winning combo historically

Source: Verdad as of 05.06.2024

Dave: and you can see the inefficient distribution of flows into companies falling in the “expensive and low profitability” group

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