The Market in Pictures, May 16

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from the market bounce and poor sentiment, to earnings and the economy, to expectations for large vs. small stocks. Enjoy!

Beckham: It’s hard to classify this rally as a dead cat bounce, it’s been one of the better recoveries historically

Dave: and one that’s being achieved with no help from the bond market

Source: Raymond James as of 05.14.2025

Ten: Fund managers as a group seem reluctant to join the rally

Source: BofA as of 05.12.2025

Mark: with investor sentiment measures still tracking far more concern than euphoria

Data as of 05.09.2025

Brian: Speaking of sentiment, US consumers report themselves to be just as gloomy as fund managers

Graphic via WSJ as of 05.16.2025

Dave: with inflation expectations a particular sore spot and far above market and economist expectations

Data as of April 2025

John Luke: The ironic thing is that actual inflation measures continue to fall towards FOMC targets

Data as of 05.14.2025

John Luke: and CPI has been below expectations in each of the past 3 monthly reports

Data as of 05.14.2025

Brad: Walking back stated tariffs has been a big contributor to the market recovery, but Corporate America has been a big contributor as well

Data as of 05.13.2025

Dave: though the bar looks really high for the 2nd half of 2025

Source: Raymond James as of 05.09.2025

JD: Recession expectations are receding nicely, as investors re-embrace positive growth estimates

Data as of 05.09.2025

John Luke: as market participants digest the impact of tariffs that look to be higher but not as high as feared

Brad: Small cap stocks remain unable to sustainably outperform large caps

Data as of 05.15.2025

Dave: and concerns of higher rates won’t help their case

Dave: What small caps need is better earnings growth, which has been lacking for the past 9 quarters

Data as of 05.13.2025

Dave: with the constant hope that the improvement will come “next quarter”

Data as of 05.14.2025

John Luke: Markets are moving from the veggies (tariffs) to the dessert (lower taxes)

Source: CRFB as of 05.13.2025

John Luke: with uncertainty around the specs but a clear trend toward higher deficits

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