The Market in Pictures, November 10

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Brad: Q3 earnings results ran ahead of estimates by a wide margin

Source: Strategas as of 11.03.2023

Dave: and while the earnings trough seems to be in the rearview mirror

Source: Morgan Stanley as of 11.06.2023

 Dave: it’s not exactly resulting in a bump to Q4 estimates and beyond

Source: Bianco as of 11.07.2023

Brad: While the Mag 7 is dominating earnings this year

Source: Strategas as of 11.03.2023

Joseph: there’s a story in the past few years about the impact of earnings growth on market leadership

Source: Raymond James as of 11.10.2023

Brett: The Fed Funds rate is above the average corporate bond coupon for the first time in decades

Data as of October 2023

Beckham: as the Fed’s zero-rate policy turned out to be one heckuva tailwind for corporations willing and able to raise debt

Data as of October 2023

John Luke: The same cannot be said for the US government, as they took on huge debt and relied on short-term maturities

Data as of November 2023

Joseph: Large banks and small banks have taken a much different approach to their business activity since the SVB crisis

Data as of October 2023

Brett: but the tighter lending standards haven’t flowed through into wider high-yield spreads like they have in the past

Data as of October 2023

Beckham: Asset flows have sector have been dominated by technology

Data as of 11.08.2023

Dave: resulting in a continued valuation split between technology and the rest of the market

Source: Piper Sandler as of October 2023

John Luke: The cumulative inflation of the past few years is adding up to real longevity risk for those relying on fixed cash flows

Data as of 11.08.2023

Dave: A reminder that markets have historically made their way through geopolitical events without much impact

Data as of January 2023

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